{ "date": "2026-04-13", "generated_at": "2026-04-13T08:02:00.420349", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-13", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 273, "matched_count": 273, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 273, "matched_rows": 273, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 118, "under_recommendation_count": 8, "strong_count": 14, "play_count": 47, "lean_count": 65, "no_play_count": 147, "average_edge_over": 0.0172, "average_edge_under": -0.0549, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 273, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -285, "expected_home_runs": 0.1835, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1676, "model_over_probability": 0.1676, "model_under_probability": 0.8324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7403, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2843, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7157, "edge_over": -0.1265, "edge_under": 0.0921, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0921, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.029, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 53.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 37.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 38.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1887, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0036, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1075, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0614, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1661, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1462, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1551, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1054, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1436, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1866, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1479, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0346, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1039, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1498, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.0808, "edge_under": -0.1158, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0808, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.117, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.043, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1702, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1489, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0556, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1565, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1391, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0467, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0254, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0552, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 37.3, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0808, "edge_under": -0.1206, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0808, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.117, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.043, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1702, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1489, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0556, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1565, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1391, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0467, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0254, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0552, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 37.3, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0801, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0801, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.117, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.043, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.25, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.42, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1702, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1489, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0556, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1565, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1391, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.006, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0247, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0175, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0323, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0149, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0552, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 37.0, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": -310, "expected_home_runs": 0.1835, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1676, "model_over_probability": 0.1676, "model_under_probability": 0.8324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7258, "edge_over": -0.1181, "edge_under": 0.0763, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0763, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": -1045, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9127, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1185, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8815, "edge_over": 0.0755, "edge_under": -0.1109, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0755, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9777, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1799, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1541, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1813, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0314, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0926, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0586, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.043, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1289, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0688, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": -1110, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9174, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.118, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.882, "edge_over": 0.0755, "edge_under": -0.1156, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0755, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9777, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1799, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1541, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1813, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0314, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0926, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0586, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.043, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1289, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0688, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2209, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1982, "model_over_probability": 0.1982, "model_under_probability": 0.8018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0755, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0755, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9777, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.46, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1799, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1541, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1813, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0314, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0926, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0586, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.043, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1289, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.192, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0688, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 780, "under_odds": -1170, "expected_home_runs": 0.2053, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1856, "model_over_probability": 0.1856, "model_under_probability": 0.8144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1136, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9213, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1098, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8902, "edge_over": 0.072, "edge_under": -0.1069, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.072, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.866, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.2338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2085, "model_over_probability": 0.2085, "model_under_probability": 0.7915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": 0.0715, "edge_under": -0.1114, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0715, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9062, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.47, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.229, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2037, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1469, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0755, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1655, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2089, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0285, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.092, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0667, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1365, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0099, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0719, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0488, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1464, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2013, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.075, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": 33.4, "value_rank": 10, "value_box_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1240, "expected_home_runs": 0.2053, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1856, "model_over_probability": 0.1856, "model_under_probability": 0.8144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9254, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8896, "edge_over": 0.0707, "edge_under": -0.111, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0707, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.866, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1892, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.065, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1375, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1745, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0226, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0743, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0673, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1145, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0861, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0642, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0596, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0646, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2053, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1856, "model_over_probability": 0.1856, "model_under_probability": 0.8144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0707, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0707, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.866, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.2338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2085, "model_over_probability": 0.2085, "model_under_probability": 0.7915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1332, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8668, "edge_over": 0.0706, "edge_under": -0.1059, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9062, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": 33.0, "value_rank": 11, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2338, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2085, "model_over_probability": 0.2085, "model_under_probability": 0.7915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0706, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9062, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": 33.0, "value_rank": 12, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1225, "expected_home_runs": 0.1974, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "model_over_probability": 0.1791, "model_under_probability": 0.8209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9245, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0686, "edge_under": -0.1036, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0686, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9231, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1425, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.05, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1406, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0368, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.032, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0318, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0301, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1035, "under_odds": -1785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1702, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1565, "model_over_probability": 0.1565, "model_under_probability": 0.8435, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0881, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9469, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0851, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9149, "edge_over": 0.0684, "edge_under": -0.1034, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0684, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9061, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; 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strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1425, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.05, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1406, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0308, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0306, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0305, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0289, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1974, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "model_over_probability": 0.1791, "model_under_probability": 0.8209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0674, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0674, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9231, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.89, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1425, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.05, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0737, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1585, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1406, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0308, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0306, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0305, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0289, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2479, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.991, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0614, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1173, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1603, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0597, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0565, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0551, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0433, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": -1185, "expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9222, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.0568, "edge_under": -0.0966, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0568, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.991, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0614, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1173, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1603, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0559, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0665, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0427, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1183, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0561, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0561, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.991, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1767, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0614, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1173, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1603, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.001, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0584, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0552, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0658, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.042, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1130, "under_odds": -2055, "expected_home_runs": 0.1451, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1351, "model_over_probability": 0.1351, "model_under_probability": 0.8649, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0813, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0786, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9214, "edge_over": 0.0538, "edge_under": -0.0887, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0538, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.121, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1306, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.045, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0783, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1204, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0424, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0493, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0476, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0523, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0391, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": 40, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1451, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1351, "model_over_probability": 0.1351, "model_under_probability": 0.8649, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0833, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0518, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0518, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.121, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1306, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.045, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0783, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1204, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.005, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0404, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0473, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0503, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0371, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": 41, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.0515, "edge_under": -0.091, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0515, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1964, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0665, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0862, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.188, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0463, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0639, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0508, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0836, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0555, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1988, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803, "model_over_probability": 0.1803, "model_under_probability": 0.8197, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1247, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8753, "edge_over": 0.0513, "edge_under": -0.086, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7901, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.83, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2111, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1994, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1802, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2402, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2111, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0512, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0821, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0704, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1286, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0667, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0821, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0488, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1465, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 50, "edge_direction_rank": 43, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1988, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803, "model_over_probability": 0.1803, "model_under_probability": 0.8197, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8759, "edge_over": 0.0513, "edge_under": -0.091, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7901, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.83, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2111, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1994, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1802, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2402, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2111, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0512, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0821, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0704, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1286, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0667, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0821, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0488, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1465, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 51, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1090, "under_odds": -2165, "expected_home_runs": 0.1451, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1351, "model_over_probability": 0.1351, "model_under_probability": 0.8649, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.084, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9558, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9192, "edge_over": 0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0909, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0511, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.121, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.37, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1237, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1306, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.045, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0783, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1204, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0397, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0466, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0837, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0449, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0364, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0447, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.2176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956, "model_over_probability": 0.1956, "model_under_probability": 0.8044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8606, "edge_over": 0.0507, "edge_under": -0.0903, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9885, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.188, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0704, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1519, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1864, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.007, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0712, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0431, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0104, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0695, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0415, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0699, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 53, "edge_direction_rank": 46, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -920, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8712, "edge_over": 0.0507, "edge_under": -0.086, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1964, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1833, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0665, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0862, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.188, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0471, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0631, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.05, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0828, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0547, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.066, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0507, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2111, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1994, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1802, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2402, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2111, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0503, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0812, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0695, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0169, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0658, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0812, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0488, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1465, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -800, "expected_home_runs": 0.2176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956, "model_over_probability": 0.1956, "model_under_probability": 0.8044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1411, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8589, "edge_over": 0.0496, "edge_under": -0.0845, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0496, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9885, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.188, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0704, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1519, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1864, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0059, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0701, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.042, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0684, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0404, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0699, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.961, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 6.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 6.55, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1711, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1767, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0613, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2019, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1752, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0575, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0631, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1133, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0883, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0616, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1341, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3117, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 67, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2538, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2242, "model_over_probability": 0.2242, "model_under_probability": 0.7758, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": 0.044, "edge_under": -0.0834, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.044, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.013, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1459, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1712, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1741, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0457, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0141, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0112, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0405, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0141, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3239, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2268, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2029, "model_over_probability": 0.2029, "model_under_probability": 0.7971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": 0.0243, "edge_under": -0.065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0243, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9312, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.117, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.043, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0704, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1499, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1808, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0287, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0367, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0092, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1779, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0441, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0022, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0808, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0697, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1039, "model_over_probability": 0.1039, "model_under_probability": 0.8961, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0589, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0047, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0698, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0615, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0602, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0753, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1039, "model_over_probability": 0.1039, "model_under_probability": 0.8961, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0639, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0047, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0698, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0615, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0602, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0753, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 143, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1039, "model_over_probability": 0.1039, "model_under_probability": 0.8961, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0239, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.077, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.109, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 0.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0047, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0042, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0698, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0615, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0602, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0753, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.956, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 144, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.2165, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1947, "model_over_probability": 0.1947, "model_under_probability": 0.8053, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": 0.0238, "edge_under": -0.0631, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1375, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1408, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0493, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0646, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0334, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0301, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0641, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.04, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0486, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1999, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1812, "model_over_probability": 0.1812, "model_under_probability": 0.8188, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0237, "edge_under": -0.0636, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8903, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.13, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.93, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.6, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1589, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0578, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1198, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1684, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1479, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0377, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0139, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0096, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0778, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0574, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.2041, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1846, "model_over_probability": 0.1846, "model_under_probability": 0.8154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": 0.0233, "edge_under": -0.0588, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0233, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.013, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1459, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1712, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1741, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0154, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0099, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1606, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0128, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3239, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1963, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": 0.0232, "edge_under": -0.0633, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0232, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8869, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.013, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.94, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1736, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1497, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1514, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1355, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0657, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0198, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0627, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.034, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.081, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.96, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.56, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1886, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1649, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0617, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.177, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1546, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0556, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0087, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0381, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0016, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1176, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1143, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0611, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 175, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -355, "expected_home_runs": 0.2241, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008, "model_over_probability": 0.2008, "model_under_probability": 0.7992, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2497, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7503, "edge_over": -0.0589, "edge_under": 0.019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9662, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.101, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.96, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.169, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1421, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1008, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0555, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1664, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1347, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1242, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0933, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0907, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1176, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1589, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.125, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0328, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0983, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0529, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 176, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1954, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1775, "model_over_probability": 0.1775, "model_under_probability": 0.8225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.0188, "edge_under": -0.0592, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0188, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8088, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1522, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1673, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1191, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1882, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1637, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0396, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0065, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0086, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.056, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1927, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753, "model_over_probability": 0.1753, "model_under_probability": 0.8247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0178, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0178, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9374, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.101, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.96, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1963, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1464, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1823, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1589, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0338, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0161, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0213, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 193, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": 0.0153, "edge_under": -0.0546, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9621, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.98, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2191, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0712, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1701, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2305, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2016, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0008, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0482, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0178, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1701, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0596, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2715, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0704, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 196, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1118, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1058, "model_over_probability": 0.1058, "model_under_probability": 0.8942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0153, "edge_under": -0.0502, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.089, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.961, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0565, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0102, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0115, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0772, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0686, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.034, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0803, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0902, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0133, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0112, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 194, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2179, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1958, "model_over_probability": 0.1958, "model_under_probability": 0.8042, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1755, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8245, "edge_over": 0.014, "edge_under": -0.0498, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.101, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.96, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1963, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1464, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1823, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1589, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0354, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0145, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1811, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 201, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": 0.0139, "edge_under": -0.0481, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9294, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.19, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1596, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0586, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1694, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1487, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0691, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0059, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0206, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0315, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1764, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 202, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0139, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9294, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.112, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.19, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1596, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0586, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1694, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1487, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0691, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0059, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0206, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0252, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0315, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1157, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1764, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0578, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1933, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0659, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1743, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0333, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.032, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0221, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1607, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0395, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0653, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.171, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1933, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0659, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1743, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.032, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0307, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0208, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0382, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0117, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0653, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 230, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.2255, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2019, "model_over_probability": 0.2019, "model_under_probability": 0.7981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": 0.0077, "edge_under": -0.0432, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.859, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.128, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.082, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2375, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2544, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.087, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1833, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2495, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2206, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0433, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0602, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1933, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0553, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0264, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1941, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0861, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 238, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1466, "model_over_probability": 0.1466, "model_under_probability": 0.8534, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0077, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9007, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; 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historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.029, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.79, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.99, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1161, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1128, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0403, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1147, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1116, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0586, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0228, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0261, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0275, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0831, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2884, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0397, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 236, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2489, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2203, "model_over_probability": 0.2203, "model_under_probability": 0.7797, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2048, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7952, "edge_over": 0.0075, "edge_under": -0.0464, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.135, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.013, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.15, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.22, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1641, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1697, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0594, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1543, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1854, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1614, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0585, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0487, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0431, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0834, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0514, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1282, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.28, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0582, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 239, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-13T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -720, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1563, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8437, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0478, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.029, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.883, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1712, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1491, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.056, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1601, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1417, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0686, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0031, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0613, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0264, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1061, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1613, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0553, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.991, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2052, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0676, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1741, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0279, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0032, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.022, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0726, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.036, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1282, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0664, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.991, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.014, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2052, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0676, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1741, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.03, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0241, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0747, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0381, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1282, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0664, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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