Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 23 |
| Height | 6' 5" |
| Weight | 240 lb |
| Debut | 2025-04-23 |
Player profile / Athletics
Nick Kurtz
1B · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 240 lb · Age 23
Club Athletics
Position 1B
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 489 | 90 | 122 | 36 | 2 | .290 | .383 | .619 | 1.002 |
| 2026 | 412 | 61 | 89 | 20 | 7 | .266 | .405 | .497 | .902 |
| 2 Seasons | 901 | 151 | 211 | 56 | 9 | .280 | .393 | .565 | .958 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
97
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.339 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.379 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.366 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.341
0.353
0.366
0.379
0.390
wOBA
0.385
0.399
0.416
0.432
0.446
ISO
0.207
0.221
0.235
0.250
0.263
K%
27.2%
28.5%
30.0%
31.4%
32.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91
Exit velocity93.7
98
Hard-hit%59.2%
99
xBA0.409
97
xSLG0.808
99
xwOBA0.379
96
BB%17.9%
100
+17 vs proj
Bat speed76.4
99
K%31.4%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
12
Range Runs-2.2 · 1B
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
32
SB Success Rate85.7% · 1B
67
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1% · rebadged research
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions71.9% · rebadged research
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
24
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.058 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Kurtz’s wOBA sits at 0.416, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.379 — a gap of 0.036, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 430 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Judge, Aaron NYY · R | 0.66 | Sprint speedMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Wood, James WSH · L | 0.61 | Hard-hit rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Bauers, Jake MIL · L | 0.54 | Oppo rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Alonso, Pete BAL · R | 0.50 | Avg exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-09 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.357 xwOBA | 27 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ LAA0 HR | 1 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2 BB, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ SEA1 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | HR, BB, K |
| 2026-04-17 vs CWS0 HR | 1 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 BB, RBI |
| 2026-04-15 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, 3 K |
| 2026-04-14 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |