{
  "date": "2026-04-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-13T08:02:59.127238",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 162,
    "odds_matched_count": 91,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 27,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 824937,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2489,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2204,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso",
      "hitter_id": 624413,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824856,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 345,
      "over_odds": 345,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2089,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2343,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.209,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
      "hitter_id": 519317,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823563,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 330,
      "over_odds": 330,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2233,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2002,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 825024,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2067,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1869,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.01,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 823153,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2172,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1954,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.96,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "LAA",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAA",
      "game_id": 823563,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 465,
      "over_odds": 465,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2072,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1873,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.93,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_id": 666176,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823563,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1864,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2063,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1865,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.92,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
      "team": "WSH",
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 823400,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2061,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1864,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.06,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson",
      "hitter_id": 676475,
      "team": "STL",
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823073,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 630,
      "over_odds": 630,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2085,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2338,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2086,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-04-13",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 823481,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2305,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.206,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Pete Alonso",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 345,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2089,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Giancarlo Stanton",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 330,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1867,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.01
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.96
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "LAA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 465,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1871,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.93
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jo Adell",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1864,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.92
      },
      {
        "player_name": "James Wood",
        "team": "WSH",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.06
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alec Burleson",
        "team": "STL",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 630,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2085,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}