Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-05 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-05
0 activated plays
Gap rows 264
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-06 Older: 2026-06-04

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Rafael Devers

Lean

SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera

Value Score 43.4
Odds / Gap +385 / +3.54%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.219x

Value Rank #2

Ian Happ

Strong

CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray

Value Score 43.3
Odds / Gap +550 / +7.87%
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.219x

Value Rank #3

Dansby Swanson

Strong

CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray

Value Score 39.9
Odds / Gap +605 / +7.96%
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.219x

Value Rank #4

Alex Bregman

Play

CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray

Value Score 39.5
Odds / Gap +535 / +6.99%
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.219x

Value Rank #5

Matt Chapman

Play

SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera

Value Score 34.2
Odds / Gap +525 / +6.00%
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.219x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+7.96%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+7.85%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+7.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+7.87%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+7.75%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+7.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.62%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.62%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.91%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.44%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+7.21%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+7.12%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+7.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+7.15%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+7.15%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+7.07%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+6.95%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+6.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+6.99%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+6.87%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+6.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+6.94%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+6.83%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+6.77%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+6.42%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+6.30%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+6.30%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.28%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.21%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.27%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.27%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+6.22%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+6.14%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.19%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+6.10%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.15%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.04%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+6.15%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+6.01%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+5.96%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+6.03%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+5.91%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+5.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+6.00%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+5.87%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+5.87%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.95%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.95%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+5.80%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+5.72%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+5.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.59%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.59%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+5.34%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+5.19%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+5.14%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+5.15%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+5.15%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.86%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.75%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+4.70%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.83%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.83%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+4.78%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.62%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.57%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.66%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.66%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.6
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+4.66%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.52%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+4.57%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+4.26%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+4.26%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+4.31%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.15%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.10%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.8
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+4.23%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+4.08%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+4.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.10%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.10%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.94%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.2
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.88%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.79%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+3.82%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+2.63%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-6.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.80%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.80%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.80%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+3.80%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+3.66%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+3.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.79%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+3.79%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.62%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.50%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.50%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+3.54%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+3.33%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+3.11%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.52%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.52%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+3.44%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+3.36%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+3.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+3.41%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+3.23%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+3.18%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.37%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.37%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.4
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+3.30%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+3.22%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.30%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.19%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+3.16%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.07%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+3.06%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+2.07%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-6.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+2.87%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.87%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.83%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+2.67%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.80%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.66%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.66%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.75%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.44%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.44%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.72%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.71%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-6.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.51%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.51%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+2.48%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+2.48%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+2.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.39%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.07%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.31%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.19%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.22%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.91%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.15%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.85%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.14%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.14%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.7
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+2.00%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+1.79%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+1.58%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.91%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.66%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.96%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+1.85%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+1.68%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+1.51%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.77%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.74%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-5.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.43%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.43%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.2
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.41%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.24%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+1.06%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.39%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.13%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+1.37%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.09%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.85%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 99.1
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.27%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.12%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.96%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.25%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.10%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.94%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+1.20%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+1.09%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+1.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.9
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.10%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.96%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.96%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.59%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.4
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.99%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.86%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.86%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+0.91%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+0.80%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+0.80%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.89%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.73%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+0.57%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+0.45%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.17%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+0.36%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-0.56%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-3.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.23%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.23%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.14%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-0.24%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.07%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-0.05%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-0.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.6
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-0.07%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-0.20%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.21%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-0.45%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.69%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.55%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.25%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-0.58%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.95%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.62%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.98%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.94%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.35%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.35%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.48%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 394
Latest Date 2026-06-17
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%