Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 207 lb |
| Debut | 2020-07-30 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 8", 207 lb · Age 30
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 513 | 73 | 98 | 18 | 10 | .214 | .293 | .407 | .700 |
| 2025 | 271 | 43 | 59 | 20 | 2 | .238 | .284 | .548 | .832 |
| 2026 | 308 | 36 | 67 | 7 | 9 | .240 | .308 | .387 | .695 |
| 7 Seasons | 2695 | 353 | 554 | 106 | 62 | .228 | .297 | .425 | .722 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.280
0.292
0.305
0.317
wOBA
0.309
0.325
0.343
0.361
0.377
ISO
0.133
0.148
0.164
0.180
0.195
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.3%
23.7%
25.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
47
Exit velocity85.8
24
Hard-hit%39.5%
52
xBA0.308
34
xSLG0.458
30
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%8.5%
49
Bat speed70.9
70
K%19.5%
68
+46 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
27
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs3.3 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · CF
39
Sprint Speed27.3 · CF
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.050 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Varsho’s wOBA sits at 0.343, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.294 — a gap of 0.049, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 328 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.74 | Sweet-spot rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.73 | Hard-hit rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Pages, Andy LAD · R | 0.72 | Bat speedWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Stott, Bryson PHI · L | 0.72 | Hard-hit rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 11 | 2026-05-17 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.293 xwOBA | 18 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ NYY0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, R |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL1 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | HR, K, RBI |