Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 30 |
| Height | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 207 lb |
| Debut | 2020-07-30 |
Player profile / Houston Astros
Daulton Varsho
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 8", 207 lb · Age 30
Club Houston Astros
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 513 | 73 | 98 | 18 | 10 | .214 | .293 | .407 | .700 |
| 2025 | 271 | 43 | 59 | 20 | 2 | .238 | .284 | .548 | .832 |
| 2026 | 526 | 51 | 107 | 12 | 12 | .221 | .281 | .355 | .636 |
| 7 Seasons | 2913 | 368 | 594 | 111 | 65 | .226 | .293 | .416 | .709 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.274
0.285
0.295
0.305
wOBA
0.281
0.293
0.306
0.320
0.332
ISO
0.127
0.138
0.151
0.163
0.174
K%
19.8%
20.8%
21.9%
23.1%
24.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
58
Exit velocity86.1
31
Hard-hit%37.0%
44
xBA0.293
21
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.283
28
BB%7.5%
38
Bat speed71.0
72
K%20.1%
67
+43 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.7 · CF
7
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
18
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs6.5 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · CF
54
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
48
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
86
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
268 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.014 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Varsho’s wOBA sits at 0.306, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.024, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 546 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.79 | Whiff rateSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R | 0.74 | Pull rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Heim, Jonah ATH · L | 0.74 | Pull rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Young, Cole SEA · L | 0.71 | In-zone contactSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 11 | 2026-05-17 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 20 | 2026-09-18 | 7 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +1.785 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.292 xwOBA | 19 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-05-20 @ NYY0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | HBP, K |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, R |