{ "date": "2026-06-05", "generated_at": "2026-06-05T08:02:48.529572", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-06-05", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 264, "matched_count": 264, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 264, "matched_rows": 264, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 145, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 14, "play_count": 67, "lean_count": 70, "no_play_count": 113, "average_edge_over": 0.0234, "average_edge_under": -0.0611, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 264, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.2502, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2214, "model_over_probability": 0.2214, "model_under_probability": 0.7786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1364, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8636, "edge_over": 0.0796, "edge_under": -0.1194, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0796, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.17, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.219, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.63, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2214, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1867, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1876, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2275, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1986, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0781, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0796, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0449, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0373, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0857, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0568, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0315, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1876, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 25, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 39.9, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.85, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.85, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0781, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2502, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2502, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0373, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0408, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -780, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "model_over_probability": 0.2325, "model_under_probability": 0.7675, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8864, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1479, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8521, "edge_over": 0.0787, "edge_under": -0.1189, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0787, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.219, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1898, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1903, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0734, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0787, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0253, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0648, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0365, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0677, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1898, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 43.3, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.43, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.43, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2272, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2272, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7727999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0734, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0253, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.048100000000000004, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Dansby Swanson", "hitter_id": 621020, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2502, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2214, "model_over_probability": 0.2214, "model_under_probability": 0.7786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1381, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8619, "edge_over": 0.0785, "edge_under": -0.1133, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0785, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.17, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.091, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.219, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.63, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2214, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1867, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1876, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2275, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1986, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.077, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0785, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0438, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0362, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0846, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0557, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0315, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1876, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 25, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 39.4, "value_rank": 9, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.85, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.85, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2199, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2199, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7801, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.077, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1257, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.127, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2092, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1152, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0936, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0621, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0013, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0004, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.343, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.127, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust 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10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1756, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1733, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2042, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1772, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0584, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0466, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.06, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0642, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0893, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0642, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0623, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0058, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1354, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1266, "model_over_probability": 0.1266, "model_under_probability": 0.8734, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, 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"source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.52, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1266, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1315, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1322, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1354, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1205, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0554, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0466, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0515, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0536, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0405, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.02, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1322, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 80, "edge_direction_rank": 71, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.52, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.52, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1354, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1354, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8646, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0554, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1354, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1354, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0536, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.001799999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1354, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1266, "model_over_probability": 0.1266, "model_under_probability": 0.8734, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0466, "edge_under": -0.0866, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0466, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8895, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.058, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.219, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.52, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1266, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1315, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1322, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1354, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.129, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1205, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0554, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0466, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0515, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0536, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0405, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.02, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1322, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": 72, "value_score": 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0012999999999999956, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 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"Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1484, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1379, "model_over_probability": 0.1379, "model_under_probability": 0.8621, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9478, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9113, "edge_over": 0.0457, "edge_under": -0.0857, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0457, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.015, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.068, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1379, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1363, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.136, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1342, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.141, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1284, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.042, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0457, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0441, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0433, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0488, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0433, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0362, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0245, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.136, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": 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0.1484, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0433, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 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"no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1756, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1733, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2042, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1772, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0452, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0586, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0628, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0609, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", 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"valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0058, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 760, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1762, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1615, "model_over_probability": 0.1615, "model_under_probability": 0.8385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0452, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1756, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1733, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2042, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1772, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0452, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0586, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0628, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0609, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1756, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 89, "edge_direction_rank": 79, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1709, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1767, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1775, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2282, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2282, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1993, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0983, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0468, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0983, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0694, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"recommended_edge": 0.041, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.054, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1332, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1349, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1351, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1305, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1434, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.13, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0383, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0427, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0433, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0433, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0378, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1351, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, 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"opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1256, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.118, "model_over_probability": 0.118, "model_under_probability": 0.882, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.038, "edge_under": -0.073, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.038, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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"handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.64, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1602, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1746, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1754, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1746, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, 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"opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 955, "under_odds": -1570, "expected_home_runs": 0.138, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1289, "model_over_probability": 0.1289, "model_under_probability": 0.8711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0948, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9401, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0916, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9084, "edge_over": 0.0341, "edge_under": -0.069, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0341, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8635, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1289, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1336, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1342, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1266, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0169, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0341, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0388, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0436, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0318, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0792, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1342, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust 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0.9892, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1823, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1752, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, 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"fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2013, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0217, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, 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0.0318, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8635, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1289, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1336, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1342, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1117, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1384, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1266, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0146, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0318, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0365, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0384, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0295, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", 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"palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.138, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.138, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0384, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.023800000000000016, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.1846, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1686, "model_over_probability": 0.1686, "model_under_probability": 0.8314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": 0.0316, "edge_under": -0.0715, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0316, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.948, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1686, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1217, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1228, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1353, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0017, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0316, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0153, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0256, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0256, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1228, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": 129, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1353, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1353, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8647, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0017, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1846, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1846, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1114, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0256, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, 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"Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.175, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, 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"projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, 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null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2223, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2223, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0065, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03789999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1699, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1563, "model_over_probability": 0.1563, "model_under_probability": 0.8437, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, 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"hr_multiplier": 0.919, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1563, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1683, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1689, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1672, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1661, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0502, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0611, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0491, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0453, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0513, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.249, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1689, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.02940000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.1895, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726, "model_over_probability": 0.1726, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1726, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1723, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1632, "hr_edge_palantir": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.015, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.068, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1644, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1632, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.156, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0225, 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weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 211, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1964, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1964, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8036, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.021, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", 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"edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.996, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1864, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.151, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1725, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1449, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0029, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0253, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0332, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.011, 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"home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.030299999999999994, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1973, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "model_over_probability": 0.1791, "model_under_probability": 0.8209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": 0.011, "edge_under": -0.0517, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1434, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1442, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1439, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1421, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1291, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0242, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.011, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0247, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0326, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0326, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.039, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1442, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 212, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1439, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1439, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8561, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0242, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1973, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1973, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.948, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1937, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1643, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1627, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0033, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1159, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1094, "model_over_probability": 0.1094, "model_under_probability": 0.8906, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": -0.0395, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1094, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0378, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0281, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0443, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0837, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0076, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0005, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0721, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0818, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0481, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0818, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0262, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, 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0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1615, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1689, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0049000000000000155, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2064, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1865, "model_over_probability": 0.1865, "model_under_probability": 0.8135, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0699, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0699, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9293, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.023, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1865, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1431, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1442, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1248, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1178, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.073, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0699, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1133, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1228, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1386, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1442, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 39.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 39.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1834, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1834, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8166, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.073, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2064, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2064, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1228, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.04980000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1044, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1044, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1774, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1765, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1827, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1883, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1638, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1158, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1044, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1211, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1264, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1347, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1765, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed 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