{
  "date": "2026-06-05",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-05T08:03:08.883802",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 171,
    "odds_matched_count": 88,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 29,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_name": "Riley Greene",
      "hitter_id": 682985,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824271,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 445,
      "over_odds": 445,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2257,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2022,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824673,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2766,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2417,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824271,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 440,
      "over_odds": 440,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2223,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1994,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_name": "George Springer",
      "hitter_id": 543807,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822810,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2183,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1963,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.83,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
      "hitter_id": 681481,
      "team": "DET",
      "team_abbr": "DET",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824271,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1906,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2115,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1907,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.18,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 822810,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2183,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1963,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.23,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 660670,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "PIT",
      "opponent_abbr": "PIT",
      "game_id": 824914,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2042,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1848,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.41,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
      "hitter_id": 700932,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822892,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 475,
      "over_odds": 475,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2065,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1867,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.98,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman",
      "hitter_id": 608324,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824673,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 535,
      "over_odds": 535,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2274,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.258,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2275,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "player_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_name": "Ian Happ",
      "hitter_id": 664023,
      "team": "CHC",
      "team_abbr": "CHC",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824673,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 550,
      "over_odds": 550,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2646,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2326,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Riley Greene",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 445,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.202,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 440,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1993,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.79
      },
      {
        "player_name": "George Springer",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.83
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kerry Carpenter",
        "team": "DET",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1906,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 48.18
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 47.23
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "PIT",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1847,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.41
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Manzardo",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 475,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1866,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.98
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Alex Bregman",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 535,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2274,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ian Happ",
        "team": "CHC",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 550,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      }
    ]
  }
}