Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-03-30 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Nathan Lukes
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 32
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | .303 | .371 | .447 | .818 |
| 2025 | 438 | 55 | 99 | 12 | 2 | .255 | .323 | .407 | .730 |
| 2026 | 450 | 48 | 113 | 10 | 1 | .277 | .327 | .387 | .714 |
| 4 Seasons | 1010 | 120 | 240 | 23 | 4 | .267 | .328 | .399 | .727 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 68% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.287
0.298
0.309
0.319
wOBA
0.318
0.331
0.346
0.361
0.374
ISO
0.108
0.119
0.130
0.142
0.153
K%
12.6%
13.5%
14.5%
15.5%
16.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11
Exit velocity85.2
22
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
-22 vs proj
xBA0.306
35
xSLG0.413
17
xwOBA0.293
38
-23 vs proj
BB%6.0%
22
-26 vs proj
Bat speed65.0
8
K%14.1%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs6.3 · RF
99
Arm Strength100.0 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Range Runs2.0 · RF
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
38
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.2% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions62.0% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.297 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
211 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lukes’s wOBA sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.053, -2.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 467 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson, Jacob ATH · R | 0.75 | Sprint speedHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Durbin, Caleb BOS · R | 0.62 | Barrel rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Crawford, Justin PHI · L | 0.60 | Walk rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Cronenworth, Jake SD · L | 0.60 | Avg exit velocityHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 8 | 2026-09-20 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 26 | 2026-09-23 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.313 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.312 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs NYY0 HR | 1 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | RBI |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |