Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-03-30 |
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays
Nathan Lukes
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 31
Club Toronto Blue Jays
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91 | 13 | 23 | 1 | 1 | .303 | .371 | .447 | .818 |
| 2025 | 438 | 55 | 99 | 12 | 2 | .255 | .323 | .407 | .730 |
| 2026 | 131 | 14 | 37 | 1 | 0 | .311 | .362 | .395 | .757 |
| 4 Seasons | 691 | 86 | 164 | 14 | 3 | .269 | .335 | .406 | .741 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
33
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.293
0.308
0.322
0.336
wOBA
0.343
0.368
0.395
0.423
0.448
ISO
0.100
0.117
0.137
0.156
0.173
K%
13.1%
14.4%
16.0%
17.5%
18.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.7%
4
-18 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
25
Hard-hit%32.7%
22
xBA0.345
72
xSLG0.435
24
xwOBA0.307
48
BB%6.3%
22
-21 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%16.9%
79
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
57
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
52
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs0.5 · RF
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · RF
28
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.5% · rebadged research
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.7% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
35
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
17
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
74 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.083 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lukes’s wOBA sits at 0.395, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.307 — a gap of 0.089, -2.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 142 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2025-10-31 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.312 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 @ LAA0 HR | 2 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | 2 RBI |
| 2026-04-17 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-12 vs MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |