Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-22 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-22
0 activated plays
Gap rows 285
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-23 Older: 2026-09-21

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Carlos Santana

Play

AZ vs COL | Kyle Freeland

Value Score 27.2
Odds / Gap +595 / +6.03%
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.045x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.23%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+8.23%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.52%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-11.05%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+6.80%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+6.64%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+6.64%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.1
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.71%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.71%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+5.37%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.93%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+6.65%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+6.59%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+6.59%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+6.46%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+6.46%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+6.38%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+6.03%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+5.93%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+5.93%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+5.85%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+5.85%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+5.77%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+5.84%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+5.76%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.76%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+5.81%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+5.68%
9.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+5.59%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.7
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+5.79%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+5.79%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+5.72%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.73%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+5.73%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+4.45%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-8.79%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.60%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+4.60%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+3.38%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-7.84%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+4.54%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+4.43%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+4.43%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.35%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.23%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.23%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+4.13%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+4.00%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+3.95%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.1
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+3.93%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+3.77%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+3.77%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+3.66%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+3.53%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+3.53%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+3.52%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+3.52%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+3.52%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+2.93%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+2.81%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+2.81%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+2.82%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+2.75%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+2.75%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.78%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.70%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.70%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.64%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+2.52%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.52%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+2.47%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+2.40%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+2.40%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+2.46%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+2.18%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.18%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.28%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+2.18%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.18%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.23%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.14%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.14%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.19%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.05%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+1.91%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+1.82%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+1.71%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+1.65%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+1.82%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+1.68%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+1.63%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+1.80%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+0.84%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-5.12%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -395
+1.79%
22.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -425
+0.64%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.85%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.77%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+0.88%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-5.12%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+1.74%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+1.65%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+1.65%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.74%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.74%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.74%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+1.73%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+1.40%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.40%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+1.57%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+1.57%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+1.47%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+1.40%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
+0.31%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-4.78%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+1.38%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+1.24%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+1.19%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.38%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.25%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.25%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+1.15%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.03%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.03%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+1.15%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+1.05%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+1.05%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.12%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+1.04%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.04%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+1.06%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+1.00%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+0.93%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+0.98%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+0.85%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+0.73%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+0.95%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+0.81%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.81%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+0.90%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+0.90%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+0.90%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.88%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.38%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.38%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.82%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.69%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+0.56%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.78%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.78%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.78%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+0.68%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+0.56%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+0.56%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.55%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.28%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.91%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.51%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.32%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.13%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.32%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.18%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.18%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+0.29%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.60%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-3.60%
18.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+0.21%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.06%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.06%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.08%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.08%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.08%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.05%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-0.96%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.34%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
+0.04%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-0.42%
20.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.42%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
-0.06%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
-0.18%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
-0.18%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
-0.19%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-0.47%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.47%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.20%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.16%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.19%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.23%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.39%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.39%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.33%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.64%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.64%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.35%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
-0.48%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.48%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.39%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.89%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.11%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.57%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.71%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.71%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-0.62%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-0.87%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.13%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.65%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.81%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.97%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.83%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.01%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.19%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.86%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.36%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.64%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.5
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.91%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.90%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.38%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.04%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.36%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.36%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-1.06%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.99%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.40%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.12%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.88%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-2.24%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.14%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.90%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-2.38%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.18%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.49%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.49%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.32%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.64%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.64%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-1.36%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.52%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.69%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-1.48%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.65%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.77%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.53%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.55%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.76%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.54%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.62%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.81%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 480
Latest Date 2026-09-26
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 40
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 333 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 75 / 77
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 33.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%