Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-23 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-09-23

0 activated plays

Gap rows 222

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-09-24 Older: 2026-09-22

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-27 2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.83%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +240 / U -285

+7.83%

28.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +250 / U -310

+6.25%

27.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +245 / U --

-10.85%

29.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1400

+5.88%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1480

+5.72%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+5.72%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1

Edouard Julien

COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1195

+5.66%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +785 / U -1270

+5.60%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +785 / U --

+5.60%

11.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Adley Rutschman

BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.56%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

+5.56%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +710 / U -1095

+5.56%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

+5.49%

12.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.41%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -950

+5.41%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1010

+5.41%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +665 / U --

+5.33%

13.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.07%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 14.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+5.07%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+3.94%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-8.33%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1015

+4.85%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+4.77%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+4.77%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.91%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -975

+3.91%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +650 / U -920

+3.83%

12.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+3.83%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.75%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.75%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.75%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.75%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brice Turang

MIL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+3.66%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+3.55%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+3.49%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.0

Ian Happ

CHC vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.55%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+3.55%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+3.43%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+3.43%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.03%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+3.03%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+3.03%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+2.94%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Dansby Swanson

CHC vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +2.97%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -890

+2.97%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +635 / U -945

+2.97%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+2.97%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+2.77%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+2.77%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+2.77%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +2.72%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+2.72%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+2.60%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+2.60%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.68%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +855 / U -1340

+2.68%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1415

+2.57%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +845 / U --

+2.57%

10.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+2.57%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+2.49%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+2.49%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Eugenio Suárez

CIN vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.50%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +340 / U -420

+2.50%

22.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +350 / U -450

+1.45%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +345 / U --

-5.74%

22.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +2.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+2.41%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+2.29%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+2.29%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Zach Neto

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+2.35%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.19%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+2.03%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Cronenworth

SD vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +2.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +905 / U -1450

+2.14%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +890 / U -1535

+1.99%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+1.99%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1

Mookie Betts

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

+2.09%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+1.95%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

+1.81%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+2.06%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+1.97%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+1.97%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alex Bregman

CHC vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -795

+2.05%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+1.93%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+1.93%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +2.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -720

+2.03%

15.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +510 / U -675

+1.90%

15.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+1.90%

16.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andy Pages

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +1.81%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+1.81%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -910

+1.81%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +615 / U --

+1.71%

14.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4

Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+1.68%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -505

+0.67%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-4.97%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Pete Alonso

BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.62%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +330 / U -410

+1.62%

22.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +345 / U -440

+0.53%

21.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +335 / U --

-5.00%

23.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.56%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+1.56%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+1.42%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+1.37%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Spencer Steer

CIN vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+1.54%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -770

+1.43%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+1.43%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Gunnar Henderson

BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -610

+1.50%

17.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

+1.17%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+1.17%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jackson Merrill

SD vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+1.50%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+1.37%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+1.37%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.46%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+1.46%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+1.31%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+1.31%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jorge Soler

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+1.45%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+1.29%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+1.12%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+1.41%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+1.41%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+1.41%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+1.40%

15.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +535 / U -715

+1.27%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+1.27%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Logan O'Hoppe

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.28%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +510 / U -705

+1.28%

15.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +505 / U --

+1.14%

16.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -660

+1.00%

16.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.27%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.28%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-4.56%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Stephenson

CIN vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+1.03%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+1.03%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+1.03%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+0.95%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+0.84%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+0.84%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Steven Kwan

CLE vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.84%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

+0.84%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+0.68%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

+0.63%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4

Cj Abrams

WSH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.83%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -915

+0.83%

13.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+0.73%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+0.73%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.75%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.75%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.25%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.25%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.7

Carlos Correa

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.64%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1155

+0.64%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+0.57%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+0.57%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jeremy Peña

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.60%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +765 / U -1145

+0.60%

11.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +760 / U -1215

+0.53%

11.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +760 / U --

+0.53%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+0.48%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.39%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-3.77%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.30%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +900 / U -1440

+0.30%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+0.20%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +885 / U -1525

+0.15%

9.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.9

Jose Altuve

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.11%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+0.11%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-0.02%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

-0.14%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.6

Tj Friedl

CIN vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +725 / U -1055

-0.10%

11.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +720 / U -1120

-0.18%

11.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +720 / U --

-0.18%

12.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.5

Edgar Quero

CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.15%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.15%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.15%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.1

Nico Hoerner

CHC vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.27%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.27%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-0.27%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -670

-0.31%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

-0.46%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

-0.46%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -575

-0.33%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

-0.51%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -540

-0.69%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-0.40%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-0.55%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.71%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Taylor Ward

BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

-0.43%

17.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-0.59%

17.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-0.59%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Christian Walker

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.51%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +445 / U -575

-0.51%

17.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +455 / U -615

-1.33%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

-2.86%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

-0.53%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

-0.65%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

-0.65%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.3

Mike Trout

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.56%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-0.56%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

-0.75%

19.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-0.95%

19.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Michael Busch

CHC vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

-0.71%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

-0.88%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -550

-1.06%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

-0.71%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

-0.85%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.85%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jo Adell

LAA vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -475

-0.79%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +390 / U -505

-1.65%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-2.65%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.80%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

-0.80%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

-0.94%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

-1.08%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

José Ramírez

CLE vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.82%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-0.82%

19.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +395 / U -520

-1.78%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-2.50%

20.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs BOS | Sonny Gray | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -610

-0.87%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-1.62%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-2.59%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-0.92%

19.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-1.83%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.55%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.93%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

-0.93%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

-1.10%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-1.10%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.95%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.71%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-2.41%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler O'Neill

BAL vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.95%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.71%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-2.57%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.09%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.59%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.41%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.4

Hunter Goodman

COL vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-1.15%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-1.95%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-2.27%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Isaac Paredes

HOU vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

-1.29%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -700

-1.42%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

-1.42%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

George Springer

TOR vs BAL | Chris Bassitt | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.33%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-1.64%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-1.64%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Manny Machado

SD vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -545

-1.41%

18.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +435 / U -580

-1.78%

18.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

-1.96%

18.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.66%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.66%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.84%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.84%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 481

Latest Date 2026-09-27

Latest Signals 0

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	234 matched 0 unmatched	2 / 14 / 73 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	183 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 6 / 49 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 51 unmatched	1 / 21 / 64 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	174 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 26 / 20 Strong / Play / Lean	3 Corbin Carroll \| 32.7	-- Signals --
2026-09-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	222 matched 0 unmatched	1 / 17 / 30 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	243 matched 42 unmatched	1 / 30 / 31 Strong / Play / Lean	1 Carlos Santana \| 27.2	-- Signals --
2026-09-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	33 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 0 / 15 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-20 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	258 matched 0 unmatched	14 / 41 / 66 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jeremy Peña \| 37.3	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%