Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 192 lb |
| Debut | 2022-09-23 |
Player profile / Colorado Rockies
Ezequiel Tovar
SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 192 lb · Age 25
Club Colorado Rockies
Position SS
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 695 | 83 | 176 | 26 | 6 | .269 | .295 | .469 | .764 |
| 2025 | 390 | 44 | 91 | 9 | 5 | .253 | .294 | .400 | .694 |
| 2026 | 503 | 57 | 101 | 13 | 8 | .219 | .263 | .353 | .616 |
| 5 Seasons | 2238 | 265 | 522 | 64 | 30 | .250 | .285 | .412 | .697 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.304 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.274
0.285
0.296
0.306
wOBA
0.263
0.275
0.289
0.302
0.314
ISO
0.122
0.133
0.146
0.159
0.170
K%
23.7%
24.7%
25.9%
27.0%
28.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53
Exit velocity85.6
25
Hard-hit%33.0%
27
-31 vs proj
xBA0.312
42
xSLG0.507
53
xwOBA0.277
24
-23 vs proj
BB%6.0%
23
Bat speed69.8
52
K%25.8%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
80
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
27
Range Runs0.5 · SS
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · SS
76
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.1 · SS
68
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.2% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.2% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.279 · validated
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
25
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
236 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Tovar’s wOBA sits at 0.289, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.277 — a gap of 0.012, -0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 519 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowe, Josh LAA · L | 0.69 | Sprint speedSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R | 0.66 | Sweet-spot rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Varsho, Daulton TOR · L | 0.64 | Isolated powerBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Turner, Trea PHI · R | 0.59 | Bat speedIsolated power | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-08-03 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 21 | 2026-09-24 | 7 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.396 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.299 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | K, R |
| 2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, K |
| 2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K, R |