{ "date": "2026-09-22", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-22T23:45:53.008476", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-22", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 180 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 285, "matched_count": 243, "unmatched_count": 42 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 285, "matched_rows": 243, "unmatched_rows": 42, "over_recommendation_count": 54, "under_recommendation_count": 8, "strong_count": 1, "play_count": 30, "lean_count": 31, "no_play_count": 181, "average_edge_over": 0.0012, "average_edge_under": -0.0389, "value_play_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 243, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2082, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.109605, "model_over_probability": 0.188, "model_under_probability": 0.812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.115, "edge_under": 0.0823, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0823, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.949, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.954, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.188, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1759, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1743, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1789, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1753, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1739, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1862, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.162, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1291, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.115, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1271, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1309, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.141, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1753, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2934, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14367883037648468, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1739, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8563211696235153, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1497211696235153, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2082, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2082, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15255834033418247, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8474416596658175, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.14084165966581752, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1743, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1743, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8257, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1287, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.030621169623515326, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1739, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1291, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1309, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1695, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.096888, "model_over_probability": 0.1695, "model_under_probability": 0.8305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.068, "edge_under": -0.1028, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8697, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.056, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.1, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1695, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1241, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1348, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1508, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1539, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1373, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0493, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0472, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0358, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0981, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12361620572397244, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1508, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8763837942760275, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.025516205723972438, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1857, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13777391169459696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.862226088305403, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.039673911694596956, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1241, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1241, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8759, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0226, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014157705970624518, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1508, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0493, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0407, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1875, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.171, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.097906, "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0292, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1971, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103305, "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0659, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0659, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.056, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, 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0.0103, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01702558960901214, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1435, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.02, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.012, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.2002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.105027, "model_over_probability": 0.1814, "model_under_probability": 0.8186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0579, "edge_under": -0.0977, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9339, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, 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0.0103, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01702558960901214, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1435, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.02, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.012, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", 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0.5, "over_odds": 945, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1194, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1125, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.059997, "model_over_probability": 0.1125, "model_under_probability": 0.8875, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0957, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0168, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0168, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, 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0.1465, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1678, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1475, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0426, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0168, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0517, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0593, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0721, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0593, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0518, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5383, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1465, "fangorn_exposure_tier": 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0.1194, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14431801221627696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8556819877837231, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0593, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0897, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0897, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9103, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05461801221627696, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1383, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1711, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1573, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.088698, "model_over_probability": 0.1573, "model_under_probability": 0.8427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.864, "edge_over": 0.0165, "edge_under": -0.052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0165, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9896, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1393, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1285, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1386, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1383, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1407, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 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"palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0073, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0093, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -865, "expected_home_runs": 0.1689, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1554, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.087437, "model_over_probability": 0.1554, "model_under_probability": 0.8446, "model_push_probability": 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"environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1554, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1461, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.15, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1577, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1448, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1626, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1436, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0221, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0115, 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"MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 153, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1383, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.15, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.15, "valinor_prob_under": 0.85, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0061, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013126173803110736, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.166, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0221, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0017, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 681715, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.074394, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0112, "edge_under": -0.0461, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.13, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, 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0.0112, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0253, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0334, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0288, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3109, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0997, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust 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"market_fair_probability": 0.12, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.77, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.77, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09731122699147131, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1212, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9026887730085287, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.022688773008528687, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10729823536366484, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8927017646363351, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.012701764636335156, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.001, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027888773008528697, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1212, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.003, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0334, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.1365, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1276, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.069425, "model_over_probability": 0.1276, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1318, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1006, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1135, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1324, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1349, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, 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"fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0559, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2052, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.107865, "model_over_probability": 0.1855, "model_under_probability": 0.8145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1855, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.15, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1887, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1915, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1508, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1624, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1626, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1436, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0574, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0343, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0698, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, 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Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1887, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1887, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8113, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0311, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05494734093570672, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1624, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0574, 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0243, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01972608830540304, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1741, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0077, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0396, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1989, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.104337, "model_over_probability": 0.1804, "model_under_probability": 0.8196, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0101, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0101, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9602, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.4, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.949, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.954, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.18, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1804, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1513, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1384, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1475, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1498, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1767, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1601, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1418, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0138, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0101, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0392, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0483, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0521, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0304, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0487, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 167, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1460755383346159, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1767, "palantir_prob_under": 0.853924461665384, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0138, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1989, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1989, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13777391169459696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.862226088305403, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0483, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1384, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1384, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8616, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0521, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008301626640018933, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1767, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.094927, "model_over_probability": 0.1666, "model_under_probability": 0.8334, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": -0.0104, "edge_under": -0.0287, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0104, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.056, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1666, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1754, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.0551, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0536, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.025831, "model_over_probability": 0.0536, "model_under_probability": 0.9464, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0136, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.93, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 103.5, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.819, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0536, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0342, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0551, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0551, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.053233463221788756, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0281, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9467665367782112, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02366653677821124, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1249, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1249, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8751, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0449, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08312325903446191, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0588, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0212, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0281, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0519, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1827, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.167, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095197, "model_over_probability": 0.167, "model_under_probability": 0.833, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": -0.0148, "edge_under": -0.0252, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.949, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.954, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.167, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1431, 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1827, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1827, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13420633529220316, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8657936647077968, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04059366470779685, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1341, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1341, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8659, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0477, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011557231968237783, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1497, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0321, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0463, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1768, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1621, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.091902, "model_over_probability": 0.1621, "model_under_probability": 0.8379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": -0.0203, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": 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"valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011557231968237783, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1497, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, 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"palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0623, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0645, "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.153, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085849, "model_over_probability": 0.153, "model_under_probability": 0.847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.15, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.15, "valinor_prob_under": 0.85, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.027, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03308457157283644, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1432, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0501, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0489, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.023306, "model_over_probability": 0.0489, "model_under_probability": 0.9511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0311, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0311, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": 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4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.049, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.997, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1855, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.15, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1887, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1915, "hr_valinor_model_version": 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"environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.819, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1509, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.167, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1605, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1669, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1679, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1685, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1861, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1619, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0184, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 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-0.0148, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1605, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1605, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8395, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0264, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02146599888960951, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1685, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1663, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1532, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085981, "model_over_probability": 0.1532, "model_under_probability": 0.8468, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1532, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1383, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1256, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1375, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1392, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1201, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0531, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0391, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.054, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0587, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0783, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0639, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1738, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1375, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1611, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1611, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8389, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0715, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013829183732474576, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1781, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": 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"likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9289, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, 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"palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1735, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1735, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12218650422937256, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8778134957706274, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0962, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1337, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1337, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8663, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0768, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02290370864570984, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1363, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1659, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1529, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085783, "model_over_probability": 0.1529, "model_under_probability": 0.8471, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0512, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9281, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1529, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1454, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1303, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1402, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1443, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1347, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0431, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0512, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0587, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0619, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0738, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0539, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0694, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13253560154832225, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.161, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8674643984516778, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0431, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1659, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1659, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13777391169459696, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.862226088305403, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0619, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1303, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1303, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8697, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0738, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.007473911694596963, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.161, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T113738Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260921T114002Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-23T03:45:47.030040+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-22T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": 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Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 691406, "event_id": "823494-691406-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 691406, "event_id": "823494-691406-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823543-519317-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823543-519317-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823543-519317-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823494-519317-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823494-519317-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 519317, "event_id": "823494-519317-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823543-700250-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823543-700250-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823543-700250-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823494-700250-DraftKings", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823494-700250-FanDuel", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "line": 0.5, "hitter_id": 700250, "event_id": "823494-700250-BetMGM", "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "reason": "No safely matched Mithrandir home run props row was found." } ] }