{
  "date": "2026-09-22",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T23:46:14.257124",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 180,
    "odds_matched_count": 81,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 26,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 824785,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.22,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1976,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.85,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822840,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2035,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1843,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker",
      "hitter_id": 663656,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823897,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1989,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1805,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.12,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_id": 467793,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824302,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 595,
      "over_odds": 595,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2284,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2043,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford",
      "hitter_id": 694671,
      "team": "TEX",
      "team_abbr": "TEX",
      "opponent": "NYM",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYM",
      "game_id": 822840,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 545,
      "over_odds": 545,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2213,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1986,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.55,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_id": 678662,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824302,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 670,
      "over_odds": 670,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2163,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1946,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823897,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.167,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1827,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1671,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.1,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823089,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1823,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1667,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 40.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette",
      "hitter_id": 666182,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822840,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 695,
      "over_odds": 695,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1843,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2037,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1844,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.29,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-22",
      "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor",
      "hitter_id": 647304,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 823089,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1879,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1714,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.79,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.85
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1841,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1804,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.12
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 595,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2042,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Wyatt Langford",
        "team": "TEX",
        "opponent": "NYM",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 545,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1985,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.55
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 670,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.35
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.167,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.1
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 40.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bo Bichette",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 695,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1843,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.29
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Josh Naylor",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1713,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.79
      }
    ]
  }
}