Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-10 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-10
0 activated plays
Gap rows 243
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-06-11 Older: 2026-06-09

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga

Value Score 47.9
Odds / Gap +645 / +9.33%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.083x

Value Rank #2

Brenton Doyle

Strong

COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga

Value Score 41.5
Odds / Gap +655 / +8.45%
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.083x

Value Rank #3

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 40.5
Odds / Gap +395 / +3.45%
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.102x

Value Rank #4

Bryce Harper

Lean

PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 35.4
Odds / Gap +415 / +3.34%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.009x

Value Rank #5

Ian Happ

Play

CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen

Value Score 34.4
Odds / Gap +550 / +6.57%
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.083x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +9.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+9.33%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+9.24%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+9.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+8.66%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+8.56%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+8.50%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+8.45%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+8.45%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+8.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +8.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+8.44%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+8.33%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+8.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+8.02%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+7.89%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+7.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+7.76%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+7.64%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+7.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+7.64%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+7.48%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+7.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+6.84%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+6.74%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+6.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+6.76%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+6.76%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+6.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.57%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.45%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.45%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+5.47%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+5.47%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+5.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+5.31%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+5.31%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.31%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.24%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.16%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.16%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.21%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+5.21%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+5.11%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+4.95%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+5.05%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.95%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+4.77%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.65%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.65%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.66%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.51%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+4.63%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+4.63%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+4.53%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+4.43%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+4.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.46%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.37%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.43%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.36%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.38%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.30%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.38%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+4.27%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.35%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+4.35%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.32%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.22%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
+4.29%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
+4.10%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
+4.02%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.3
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -865
+4.09%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -920
+4.09%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+3.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.99%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.86%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.72%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.86%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.72%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.82%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.69%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.57%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+3.54%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+3.40%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+3.35%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.3
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+3.54%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.44%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+3.39%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.5
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+3.45%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+3.24%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+3.03%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.35%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.23%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.23%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+3.34%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+3.15%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.96%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+3.33%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+3.00%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.33%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.20%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+3.31%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+3.19%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.19%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+3.15%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+3.15%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+3.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.14%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+3.03%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+3.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.04%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+2.95%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+2.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.91%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+2.59%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+2.88%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+2.55%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.82%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+2.82%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+2.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.63%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.55%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.51%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.40%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+2.46%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.31%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+2.15%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+2.45%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.13%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.13%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.31%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.97%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.31%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.21%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+2.15%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+1.98%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+1.80%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.12%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.12%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.7
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.05%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+1.94%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+1.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+1.96%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+1.84%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+1.84%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+1.92%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+0.64%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-4.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+1.91%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+0.57%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+1.78%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.61%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+1.44%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+1.77%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.49%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.61%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.42%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.23%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.59%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.59%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+1.55%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+1.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+1.27%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
+1.53%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
+1.40%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+1.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
+1.41%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.22%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
+1.03%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs SF | Robbie Ray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+1.31%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+1.17%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+1.03%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.20%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.05%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+1.16%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.99%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.81%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+1.03%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.04%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-4.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.01%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+0.88%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.85%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.69%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.44%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-0.81%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-3.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+0.35%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.74%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-3.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.29%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.67%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.68%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.26%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.24%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.5
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.21%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.21%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.6
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.19%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.55%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.60%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.88%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.89%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.83%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.95%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-2.00%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.24%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.55%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.31%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.76%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 394
Latest Date 2026-06-17
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%