Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-27 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-27
0 activated plays
Gap rows 234
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-09-26

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +9.17%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+9.17%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+7.46%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-11.99%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.57%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.57%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+5.23%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.79%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.49%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+6.49%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.41%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.84%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+5.84%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+4.65%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-9.01%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.60%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+5.60%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.52%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.08%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.93%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.93%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+4.54%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.44%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.44%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+4.44%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.34%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+4.29%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.38%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.30%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.30%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.35%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.22%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.10%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+4.34%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+3.35%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-7.63%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.34%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.22%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.22%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.22%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.15%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.15%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+3.96%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+2.95%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-7.31%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+3.96%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+3.84%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+3.84%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+3.78%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+3.65%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+3.65%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+3.76%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+3.65%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.65%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.74%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.74%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+3.64%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+3.63%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.50%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.36%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.61%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.51%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.51%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+3.55%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+3.43%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+3.43%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.51%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.38%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.38%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+3.46%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+3.46%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+3.46%
12.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.29%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.20%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.20%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+3.17%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+3.17%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.08%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+3.03%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+2.91%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+2.91%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.03%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.95%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.95%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.87%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.87%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.87%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.86%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.75%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.75%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+2.77%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+2.77%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.77%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.71%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.57%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.52%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+2.60%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+2.46%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+2.46%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.43%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+2.33%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.33%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.20%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.32%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-5.55%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+2.17%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+2.09%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+2.09%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.12%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.62%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.4
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.12%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.02%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.02%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+2.10%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+1.92%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+1.87%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.93%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.93%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.93%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+1.92%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+1.83%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+1.83%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+1.73%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+1.73%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.65%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+1.61%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+1.45%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+1.37%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+1.59%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+1.47%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+1.47%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.57%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.42%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.42%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.52%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.52%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.52%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+1.41%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+1.30%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+1.30%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+1.40%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+1.32%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.32%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+1.34%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+1.23%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+1.17%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+1.17%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+1.03%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.03%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+1.06%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+1.06%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+1.06%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.89%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.72%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.55%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.71%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-0.23%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-4.07%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+0.63%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.49%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.35%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+0.42%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.26%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+0.10%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.33%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.66%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.62%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.14%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.04%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.22%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+0.06%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+0.06%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+0.06%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
-0.02%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
-0.17%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.17%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.09%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.05%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.30%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +785 / U -1180
-0.17%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1250
-0.30%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
-0.30%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.19%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.15%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.20%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.31%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.45%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.59%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.46%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.63%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.81%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.49%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-1.34%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-2.93%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.59%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.48%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.76%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.63%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.45%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.85%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.64%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.64%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.64%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs LAA | Yusei Kikuchi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
-0.66%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
-0.79%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-0.79%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.69%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.63%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.67%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-0.72%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.85%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-0.98%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.88%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-1.02%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.02%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.00%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.99%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.24%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-1.08%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-1.22%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.37%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.18%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.50%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.50%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.37%
16.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.83%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.98%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.42%
15.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-1.97%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-2.10%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.47%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.66%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.69%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-1.49%
15.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-1.80%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-1.93%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 481
Latest Date 2026-09-27
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 234 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 14 / 73
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 183 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 49
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%