Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-20 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-20
0 activated plays
Gap rows 258
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-21 Older: 2026-09-19

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-19

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jeremy Peña

Strong

HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 37.3
Odds / Gap +735 / +8.18%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.108x

Value Rank #2

Carlos Correa

Strong

HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 37.1
Odds / Gap +740 / +8.18%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.108x

Value Rank #3

Jesús Sánchez

Strong

TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 33.6
Odds / Gap +685 / +7.44%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.152x

Value Rank #4

Alec Burleson

Play

STL vs WSH | Jake Irvin

Value Score 31.2
Odds / Gap +625 / +6.80%
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.075x

Value Rank #5

Jose Altuve

Play

HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 29.8
Odds / Gap +515 / +5.13%
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.108x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +740 / U -1085
+8.18%
11.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +735 / U -1155
+8.10%
11.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +735 / U --
+8.10%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +735 / U -1080
+8.18%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1145
+8.11%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +730 / U --
+8.11%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+7.58%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+7.42%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+7.42%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+7.44%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+7.36%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+7.36%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.39%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.39%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.68%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.21%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.29%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+7.29%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+5.95%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-10.51%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.80%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.80%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.80%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+6.73%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+6.59%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+6.54%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.3
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+6.49%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+6.49%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+6.42%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.04%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.04%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.95%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.77%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.77%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.77%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+5.53%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+5.42%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+5.36%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.48%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+5.37%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+5.37%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+5.44%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+5.36%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.36%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.25%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+5.12%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.12%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+5.13%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+5.00%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+5.00%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.70%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+4.70%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+4.60%
14.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.63%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.54%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.54%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.58%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.58%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.58%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+4.45%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.31%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.26%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.41%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.41%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.41%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+4.38%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+4.28%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.28%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+4.34%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+4.18%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+4.10%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+4.28%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+4.14%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.14%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.96%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.86%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.86%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+3.87%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.87%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.77%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+3.75%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
+3.47%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+3.47%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.69%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.54%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.54%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.66%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.35%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.35%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.61%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.53%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.53%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.57%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.48%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.48%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+3.54%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+3.48%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+3.41%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.41%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.27%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.27%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+3.36%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+3.21%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.21%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -395
+3.17%
22.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -425
+2.02%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-6.23%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.01%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+2.89%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+2.89%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.01%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.01%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.01%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.2
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.00%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+2.89%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+2.89%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+2.98%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+2.87%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.87%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+2.95%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+2.77%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+2.59%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+2.59%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+1.31%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-5.65%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.53%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.38%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.22%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+2.52%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+2.52%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+2.44%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+2.51%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+2.18%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.18%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+2.49%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+2.38%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+2.38%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+2.46%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
+1.45%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-5.75%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.44%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.28%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+2.12%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.43%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.42%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.78%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.15%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.02%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.02%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.03%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.87%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+1.71%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.85%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.72%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.59%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.77%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.63%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.63%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+1.76%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+1.64%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+1.64%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.71%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.54%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.37%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+1.58%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
+0.64%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-4.97%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+1.32%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.18%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+1.03%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+1.31%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.37%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-4.64%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+0.87%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+0.71%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+0.66%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.7
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+0.64%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.45%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-4.02%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.63%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.13%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.13%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.8
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.47%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.32%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.17%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.46%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.30%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.30%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.34%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+0.21%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.21%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.28%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.13%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.13%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.22%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.15%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.15%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.18%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.28%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.52%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.12%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.84%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-3.44%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.07%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.82%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.42%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.10%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.98%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.25%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
-0.16%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
-0.27%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
-0.27%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -530
-0.17%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -495
-0.57%
19.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-0.57%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
-0.27%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
-0.39%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-0.39%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.36%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
-0.50%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.50%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
-0.57%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
-0.74%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
-0.78%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.3
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-0.66%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-0.79%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.79%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-0.82%
18.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-1.68%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-2.55%
18.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
-0.95%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.14%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-1.33%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.03%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.39%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.39%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-1.16%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-1.34%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-1.52%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-1.35%
16.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-1.85%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.99%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
-1.42%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-1.70%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.70%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.42%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.73%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.73%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.46%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.67%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.89%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.49%
21.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.50%
22.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.74%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.52%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.66%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.70%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.60%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.90%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.90%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 480
Latest Date 2026-09-26
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 40
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 333 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 75 / 77
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 33.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%