{
  "date": "2026-09-20",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-20T23:44:50.252404",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 153,
    "odds_matched_count": 86,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 825028,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2218,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1991,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.67,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824789,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2053,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2298,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2055,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824139,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 370,
      "over_odds": 370,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2146,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2416,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2147,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
      "hitter_id": 677594,
      "team": "SEA",
      "team_abbr": "SEA",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824300,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2269,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2031,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 50.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824139,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 405,
      "over_odds": 405,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1963,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2185,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1964,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.89,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team": "TOR",
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822844,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2109,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2369,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2111,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve",
      "hitter_id": 514888,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824139,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 515,
      "over_odds": 515,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2407,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2141,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.8,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward",
      "hitter_id": 621493,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824789,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 460,
      "over_odds": 460,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2024,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1834,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.16,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
      "hitter_id": 542303,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "KC",
      "game_id": 823329,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1764,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.89,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-20",
      "player_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_name": "Manny Machado",
      "hitter_id": 592518,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823247,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1927,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1754,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.59,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.67
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2053,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 51.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 370,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2146,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez",
        "team": "SEA",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.203,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 50.2
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 405,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1963,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.89
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
        "team": "TOR",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2109,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jose Altuve",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 515,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2139,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.8
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Taylor Ward",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 460,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1832,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.16
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "KC",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.89
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Manny Machado",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.59
      }
    ]
  }
}