{ "date": "2026-09-20", "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-20T23:44:40.217801", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-20", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 153 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 258, "matched_count": 258, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 258, "matched_rows": 258, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 115, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 14, "play_count": 41, "lean_count": 66, "no_play_count": 137, "average_edge_over": 0.0124, "average_edge_under": -0.05, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 258, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 735, "under_odds": -1080, "expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.11918, "model_over_probability": 0.2016, "model_under_probability": 0.7984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9153, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1157, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8843, "edge_over": 0.0818, "edge_under": -0.1169, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0818, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9874, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0988, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1149, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1836, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.205, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1968, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0852, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0818, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0647, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0593, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0593, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.077, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1836, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 37.3, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1157, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1700830132811077, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.205, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8299169867188922, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0543830132811077, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2251, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15290453411618152, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8470954658838185, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03720453411618152, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0988, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0988, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9012, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.021, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0712830132811077, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.205, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0852, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0593, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 740, "under_odds": -1085, "expected_home_runs": 0.2242, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2008, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.118612, "model_over_probability": 0.2008, "model_under_probability": 0.7992, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.119, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9156, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.115, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.885, "edge_over": 0.0818, "edge_under": -0.1164, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0818, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9549, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.066, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2008, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1843, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0947, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1113, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1835, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1851, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.214, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1861, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0661, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0818, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0653, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0601, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0671, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0743, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1835, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 35, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 37.1, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.115, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15346813078543003, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1851, "palantir_prob_under": 0.84653186921457, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03846813078543003, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2242, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2242, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15290453411618152, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8470954658838185, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03790453411618151, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0947, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0947, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9053, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0243, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05876813078543003, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1851, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0661, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0601, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 730, "under_odds": -1145, "expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.11918, "model_over_probability": 0.2016, "model_under_probability": 0.7984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1205, 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"market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2254, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.119323, "model_over_probability": 0.2018, "model_under_probability": 0.7982, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0736, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0736, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8816, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0096, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029032214501804654, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.162, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0362, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0315, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2298, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2053, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.121818, "model_over_probability": 0.2053, "model_under_probability": 0.7947, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": 0.0251, "edge_under": -0.0645, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0251, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1331, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1437, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1548, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1808, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1533, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1368, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0006, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0251, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0267, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.038, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0471, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0269, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0434, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 135, "edge_direction_rank": 115, "value_score": 21.4, "value_rank": 40, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1734, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1498177007447089, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1808, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8501822992552911, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.023582299255291095, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2298, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2298, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13940476784264239, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8605952321573576, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03399523215735761, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1331, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1331, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8669, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0471, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016717700744708908, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1808, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0006, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.038, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 682663, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.097091, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8606, "edge_over": 0.0249, "edge_under": -0.0645, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0249, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9018, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.963, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1488, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1265, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1383, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1477, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1655, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1575, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1399, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0206, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0249, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0184, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.012904767842642384, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1655, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0206, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.1635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1508, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.084399, "model_over_probability": 0.1508, "model_under_probability": 0.8492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7966, "edge_over": -0.0597, "edge_under": 0.0246, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0246, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0104, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.035024603129786544, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1495, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0186, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0259, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colt Keith", "hitter_id": 690993, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9063, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.24, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1263, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1145, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0937, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1104, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1139, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1063, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0015, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0176, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0058, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0021, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.135, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.135, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1256001675565322, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8743998324434679, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.020600167556532198, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0937, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0937, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9063, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.015, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03804016940108937, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1102, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0015, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0021, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.195, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.102138, "model_over_probability": 0.1772, "model_under_probability": 0.8228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0172, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8402, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.986, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1772, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, 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null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.195, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.195, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15052822170007354, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8494717782999265, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0121, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1487, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1487, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8513, "valinor_projection_implied": null, 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"active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.986, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1772, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1487, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1563, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1731, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1925, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1672, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0089, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0159, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0123, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0108, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0312, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0059, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0967, 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"hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 180, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1558, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12522826623334185, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1524, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8747717337666582, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.030571733766658143, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.195, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.195, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15052822170007354, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8494717782999265, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0052717782999264495, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1487, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1487, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8513, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0126, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025299955466731694, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1524, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0089, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0108, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "hitter_id": 681481, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.1652, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1523, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.085387, "model_over_probability": 0.1523, "model_under_probability": 0.8477, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.803, "edge_over": -0.0518, "edge_under": 0.0158, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0158, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.879, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1523, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1452, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1557, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.162, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1442, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1346, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1619, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1431, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0695, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0518, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0589, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0619, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0484, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.061, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.0484, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04624064314695009, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1346, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0695, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0619, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2218, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1989, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.117264, "model_over_probability": 0.1989, "model_under_probability": 0.8011, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0154, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, 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"valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03992839433837708, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2092, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1508, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.084399, "model_over_probability": 0.1508, "model_under_probability": 0.8492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0533, "edge_under": 0.0145, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.891, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1508, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1377, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.151, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1582, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.137, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1511, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1312, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1219, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0533, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0664, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0705, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0705, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0822, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.068, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1644, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1698, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1498, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1572, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1706, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1569, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1899, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1651, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0605, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.053, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0476, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0453, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0676, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0275, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0523, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1010, "under_odds": -1715, "expected_home_runs": 0.104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0988, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.051667, "model_over_probability": 0.0988, "model_under_probability": 0.9012, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0901, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9449, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0871, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9129, "edge_over": 0.0087, "edge_under": -0.0437, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": 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"fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.104, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.104, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1256001675565322, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8743998324434679, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0385001675565322, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1039, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1039, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8961, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0138, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05020575857223279, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0967, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113737Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0066, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0207, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "hitter_id": 656716, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 990, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.104, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0988, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.051667, "model_over_probability": 0.0988, "model_under_probability": 0.9012, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0917, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0071, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0071, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.827, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0988, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0633, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2127, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1916, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112121, "model_over_probability": 0.1916, "model_under_probability": 0.8084, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.0212, "edge_under": -0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, 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without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 187, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2054, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.9, 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"recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260920T113951Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0407, "captured_at": "2026-09-21T03:44:35.080839+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2323, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.12325, "model_over_probability": 0.2073, "model_under_probability": 0.7927, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7864, 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