Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-03-23 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-03-23

3 activated plays

Gap rows 279

Unique hitters 1

Avg gap +6.6%

Avg odds +290

Newer: 2026-03-24 Older: 2026-03-22

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4

Premium Play

Best Gap +6.90%

Best Odds +295

1+ HR 32.2%

FanDuel Best Price

1+ HR

+295

+6.90%

32.2%

BetMGM

1+ HR

+290

+6.58%

32.2%

DraftKings

1+ HR

+285

+6.25%

32.2%

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 3

Average Gap +6.58%

Unique Hitters 1

Average Odds +290

2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Giancarlo Stanton

Play

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga

Value Score 74.1

Odds / Gap +295 / +6.90%

1+ HR 32.2%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Pitcher-Friendly | HR 0.926x

Value Rank #2

Corey Seager

Play

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha

Value Score 69.2

Odds / Gap +335 / +6.22%

1+ HR 29.2%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.024x

Value Rank #3

Ketel Marte

Play

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi

Value Score 57.8

Odds / Gap +365 / +5.12%

1+ HR 26.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.000x

Value Rank #4

Matt Wallner

Lean

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo

Value Score 50.7

Odds / Gap +350 / +3.73%

1+ HR 25.9%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.009x

Value Rank #5

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly

Value Score 47.3

Odds / Gap +395 / +4.44%

1+ HR 24.6%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.000x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +6.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 32.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +295 / U -370

+6.90%

24.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +290 / U --

+6.58%

DraftKings

0.5

O +285 / U -345

+6.25%

25.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Corey Seager

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 29.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+6.22%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

+5.95%

DraftKings

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+5.68%

22.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Mickey Moniak

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.16%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 24.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

+5.16%

18.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -530

+4.80%

18.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

+4.80%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Ketel Marte

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.12%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 26.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +365 / U -470

+5.12%

20.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

+4.65%

DraftKings

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+4.41%

21.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

José Ramírez

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +4.44%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 24.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -515

+4.44%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +385 / U --

+4.02%

DraftKings

0.5

O +380 / U -480

+3.81%

20.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +4.19%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -620

+4.19%

17.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -580

+3.87%

17.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+3.87%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Trent Grisham

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +4.12%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -635

+4.12%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -595

+3.96%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

+3.96%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Dominic Canzone

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +4.09%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -730

+4.09%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+3.96%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

+3.83%

15.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+3.94%

15.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +535 / U -715

+3.81%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+3.81%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Julio Rodríguez

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -585

+3.85%

17.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -550

+3.50%

18.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

+3.50%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Matt Wallner

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 25.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -445

+3.73%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +340 / U --

+3.22%

DraftKings

0.5

O +335 / U -415

+2.96%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Gary Sánchez

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+3.66%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+3.51%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+3.35%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Adrian Del Castillo

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +3.50%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +595 / U -865

+3.50%

13.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +590 / U -810

+3.40%

14.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +590 / U --

+3.40%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.31%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +445 / U -595

+3.31%

17.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +435 / U -555

+2.97%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+2.97%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -630

+3.13%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

+2.97%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -590

+2.81%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Edouard Julien

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +2.96%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +690 / U -990

+2.96%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +685 / U -1050

+2.88%

12.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +685 / U --

+2.88%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Willi Castro

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +2.54%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1190

+2.54%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +780 / U -1260

+2.42%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +780 / U --

+2.42%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Ben Rice

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+2.34%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+2.18%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+2.01%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Brendan Donovan

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +850 / U -1320

+2.31%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +840 / U --

+2.20%

FanDuel

0.5

O +835 / U -1400

+2.14%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Joc Pederson

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.20%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -700

+2.20%

15.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -655

+2.06%

16.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

+2.06%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Cal Raleigh

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.94%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 28.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +275 / U -345

+1.94%

25.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

+1.58%

DraftKings

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+1.21%

26.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 2.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.79%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.29%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-5.29%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 94.3

Jake Burger

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 22.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -485

+1.79%

20.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +370 / U --

+1.56%

DraftKings

0.5

O +365 / U -455

+1.33%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Pavin Smith

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.70%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -835

+1.70%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -785

+1.60%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+1.60%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +900 / U -1435

+1.65%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +885 / U --

+1.50%

FanDuel

0.5

O +880 / U -1515

+1.45%

9.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+1.55%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+1.55%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+1.55%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -545

+1.55%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

+1.36%

DraftKings

0.5

O +400 / U -510

+1.16%

19.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0

Carlos Santana

AZ vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+1.45%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+1.33%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+1.33%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.0

Josh Naylor

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+1.05%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+0.90%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+0.90%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Jarren Duran

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.91%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+0.91%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+0.83%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+0.83%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5

Lane Thomas

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.67%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -810

+0.67%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+0.56%

DraftKings

0.5

O +560 / U -760

+0.45%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Aaron Judge

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 31.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +225 / U -275

+0.65%

29.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +220 / U --

+0.17%

DraftKings

0.5

O +215 / U -255

-0.33%

30.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.3

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.39%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -620

+0.39%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+0.23%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -580

+0.07%

17.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+0.35%

15.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +545 / U -770

-0.28%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

-3.85%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 92.5

Cedric Mullins

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.32%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+0.32%

15.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +545 / U -775

-0.37%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

-3.82%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 92.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.18%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -480

+0.18%

20.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

-0.05%

DraftKings

0.5

O +360 / U -450

-0.28%

21.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 100.7

Steven Kwan

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1005 / U -1700

+0.01%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +985 / U --

-0.16%

FanDuel

0.5

O +975 / U -1790

-0.24%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.18%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +690 / U -995

-0.18%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +690 / U -1060

-0.18%

12.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

-0.18%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Ryan Jeffers

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

-0.24%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

-0.82%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

-3.31%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 94.2

Luis García Jr.

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -885

-0.35%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +635 / U -940

-0.35%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +630 / U --

-0.44%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.6

Willson Contreras

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +480 / U -625

-0.37%

16.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +485 / U -665

-1.09%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

-3.08%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 92.7

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -605

-0.48%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -565

-0.82%

17.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +440 / U --

-0.82%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.9

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +565 / U -765

-0.48%

14.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +570 / U -815

-1.11%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

-3.00%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 95.8

Christian Yelich

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.49%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -595

-0.49%

17.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +470 / U -635

-1.27%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-2.82%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.5

David Fry

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

-0.50%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

-0.64%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -640

-0.78%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.61%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

-0.61%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

-0.61%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

-0.61%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.4

Jordan Beck

COL vs DET | Jack Flaherty | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -0.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1170

-0.63%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +770 / U -1240

-0.76%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +770 / U --

-0.76%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.7

Andrew Vaughn

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.66%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -880

-0.66%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

-0.77%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

-0.77%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +805 / U -1220

-0.71%

10.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +795 / U -1295

-0.83%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +795 / U --

-0.83%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Manny Machado

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +415 / U -545

-0.71%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +405 / U -510

-1.09%

19.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

-1.09%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4

Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +510 / U -705

-0.72%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -660

-1.00%

16.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

-1.00%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.73%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -720

-0.73%

15.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +545 / U -770

-1.44%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

-2.69%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 92.6

Royce Lewis

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.74%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -570

-0.74%

17.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +450 / U -605

-1.49%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-2.68%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.0

Jake Fraley

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.77%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +660 / U -935

-0.77%

12.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +660 / U -995

-1.30%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +660 / U --

-2.73%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 95.8

Evan Carter

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.78%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +680 / U -970

-0.78%

12.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1030

-0.78%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +675 / U --

-0.86%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8

Luke Raley

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 8

No Play

Best Gap -0.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +545 / U -770

-0.79%

14.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +540 / U -725

-0.91%

15.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

-0.91%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.3

Masataka Yoshida

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -0.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +875 / U -1375

-0.87%

9.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +860 / U -1455

-1.03%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +860 / U --

-1.03%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.1

José Caballero

NYY vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +985 / U -1645

-0.95%

8.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +965 / U --

-1.12%

FanDuel

0.5

O +960 / U -1735

-1.16%

9.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8

José Tena

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.96%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 7.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-0.96%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1145 / U --

-0.99%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1130 / U -2315

-1.09%

7.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.99%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-0.99%

19.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-1.90%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

-2.28%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.1

James Wood

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.00%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -595

-1.00%

17.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -635

-1.78%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

-2.47%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 93.8

Ramón Laureano

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +490 / U -645

-1.03%

16.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +500 / U -690

-1.79%

16.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +495 / U --

-2.36%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.6

Triston Casas

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.03%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

-1.03%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -570

-1.20%

17.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-1.20%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 96.8

Byron Buxton

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.04%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +335 / U -425

-1.04%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-1.31%

DraftKings

0.5

O +325 / U -395

-1.58%

22.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5

Gavin Lux

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 5.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.13%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.63%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-2.37%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 95.8

Jackson Chourio

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.14%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -690

-1.14%

15.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +525 / U -735

-1.82%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

-2.33%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Danny Jansen

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 8

No Play

Best Gap -1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -745

-1.19%

14.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +555 / U -790

-1.78%

14.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

-2.36%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.0

Wyatt Langford

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -705

-1.19%

15.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +535 / U -750

-1.85%

15.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

-2.26%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Wilyer Abreu

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.22%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

-1.22%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

-1.39%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

-1.56%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.6

Jackson Merrill

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +500 / U -695

-1.24%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -650

-1.38%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +495 / U --

-1.38%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.6

Roman Anthony

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

-1.24%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

-1.24%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +615 / U --

-1.34%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.8

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.25%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +630 / U -875

-1.25%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +630 / U -930

-1.25%

13.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

-1.34%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.1

Josh Bell

MIN vs BOS | Johan Oviedo | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.27%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

-1.27%

15.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

-1.53%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

-1.53%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.6

Angel Martínez

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.28%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +935 / U -1520

-1.28%

9.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +920 / U --

-1.42%

FanDuel

0.5

O +915 / U -1610

-1.47%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2

Cj Abrams

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -840

-1.31%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -790

-1.42%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

-1.42%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.9

Jake Cronenworth

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.32%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

-1.32%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

-1.43%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

-1.49%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.0

Randy Arozarena

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -755

-1.33%

14.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +565 / U -805

-1.98%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +560 / U --

-2.12%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 98.8

Junior Caminero

TB vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 22.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +300 / U -370

-1.36%

24.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +315 / U -395

-1.46%

23.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +305 / U --

-2.05%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.2

Bo Naylor

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-1.37%

15.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-1.98%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-2.11%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.1

Jake Bauers

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +565 / U -805

-1.37%

14.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +560 / U -755

-1.48%

14.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +560 / U --

-1.48%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.2

William Contreras

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.38%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -895

-1.38%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -950

-1.91%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

-2.18%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.2

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1015

-1.41%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

-1.49%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

-1.49%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.1

Salvador Perez

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.41%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -585

-1.41%

17.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -545

-1.61%

18.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

-1.76%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 94.9

Dylan Crews

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1035

-1.42%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +710 / U -1095

-1.86%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

-2.19%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 97.2

Brice Turang

MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.47%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +835 / U -1295

-1.47%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +825 / U -1370

-1.58%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +825 / U --

-1.58%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.7

Rob Refsnyder

SEA vs SD | Germán Márquez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -795

-1.54%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -745

-1.66%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

-1.66%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Starling Marte

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +925 / U -1500

-1.63%

9.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +910 / U --

-1.77%

FanDuel

0.5

O +905 / U -1585

-1.82%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 96.2

Romy Gonzalez

BOS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

-1.65%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +710 / U -1095

-1.85%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

-1.92%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 96.4

Josh Jung

TEX vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap -1.67%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

-1.67%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

-1.81%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

-1.81%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 103.6

Jonathan India

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +860 / U -1345

-1.71%

10.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +850 / U --

-1.82%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1425

-1.87%

10.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.6

Miguel Andujar

SD vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +840 / U -1305

-1.71%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +830 / U -1380

-1.92%

10.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +830 / U --

-1.92%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8

Isaac Collins

KC vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1350

-1.72%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1430

-1.89%

10.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +850 / U --

-1.89%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.4

Daylen Lile

WSH vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.74%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +695 / U -1000

-1.74%

12.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +695 / U -1065

-1.74%

12.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +690 / U --

-1.82%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396

Latest Date 2026-06-19

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-06-19 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 45 / 85 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 30.8	-- Signals --
2026-06-18 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 43 / 45 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 52.3	-- Signals --
2026-06-17 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	225 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 79 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bo Bichette \| 55.2	-- Signals --
2026-06-16 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	336 matched 0 unmatched	2 / 71 / 92 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 38.7	-- Signals --
2026-06-15 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	168 matched 0 unmatched	27 / 29 / 36 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 39.6	-- Signals --
2026-06-14 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	390 matched 0 unmatched	53 / 83 / 83 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 55.4	-- Signals --
2026-06-13 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 53 / 87 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 51.9	-- Signals --
2026-06-12 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	249 matched 0 unmatched	24 / 76 / 48 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.3	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%