Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 235 lb |
| Debut | 2021-04-09 |
Player profile / Seattle Mariners
Luke Raley
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 235 lb · Age 32
Club Seattle Mariners
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-60
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 455 | 58 | 98 | 22 | 11 | .243 | .320 | .463 | .783 |
| 2025 | 219 | 23 | 37 | 4 | 2 | .202 | .319 | .311 | .630 |
| 2026 | 287 | 28 | 59 | 15 | 1 | .225 | .284 | .439 | .723 |
| 6 Seasons | 1511 | 177 | 307 | 63 | 28 | .230 | .313 | .428 | .741 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
88
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.342 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.309
0.323
0.337
0.349
wOBA
0.333
0.350
0.368
0.387
0.403
ISO
0.164
0.181
0.201
0.221
0.238
K%
27.2%
28.8%
30.6%
32.4%
34.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
98
+39 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%46.2%
85
xBA0.390
97
xSLG0.753
98
xwOBA0.342
87
+24 vs proj
BB%5.5%
17
-16 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
88
K%31.7%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · RF
18
Arm Strength97.9 · RF
80
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
13
Range Runs-5.5 · RF
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
82
SB Success Rate33.3% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.9% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.390 · validated
4
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Raley’s wOBA sits at 0.368, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.026, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 309 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 7 | 2026-07-27 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 2 | 2026-07-30 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.909 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.315 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD1 HR | 2 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 4-5 | HR, 2B, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |