Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	346	45	60	12	13	.199	.301	.361	.662
2025	218	28	43	7	8	.235	.353	.399	.752
2026	346	56	79	18	6	.268	.373	.508	.881
7 Seasons	2308	278	439	76	45	.220	.317	.386	.703

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

93

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

87

Defense4 metrics

27

Speed3 metrics

61

Plate skills10 metrics

49

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16

xwOBA preseason	0.301
xwOBA current pace	0.366
xwOBA rolling p50	0.342
Observed weight	62%

xwOBA

0.312 0.326 0.342 0.357 0.372

wOBA

0.392 0.408 0.425 0.443 0.458

ISO

0.198 0.215 0.232 0.250 0.266

K%

23.6% 25.2% 26.9% 28.5% 30.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.3%

93 +31 vs proj

Exit velocity92.9

96

Hard-hit%54.8%

98 +26 vs proj

xBA0.371

89

xSLG0.690

93

xwOBA0.366

92 +42 vs proj

BB%13.4%

91 +19 vs proj

Bat speed74.6

97

K%25.2%

35 +18 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.6 · 1B

6

Arm Strength92.6 · 1B

87

Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B

5

Range Runs-5.0 · 1B

9

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.8 · 1B

85

SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B

57

Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B

40

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.8% · rebadged research

87

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research

53

Correct Decisions69.4% · rebadged research

82

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107

83

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline

4

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample

83

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample

20

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample

18

Resists FastballwOBA 0.380 · validated

5

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated

56

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Bauers's tools (72) outpace production (78) by -6 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-12.7° Current 33° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

157 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.425

xwOBA (deserved)0.366

Bauers’s wOBA sits at 0.425, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.366 — a gap of 0.059, -2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 365 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L	0.70	Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Alonso, Pete BAL · R	0.67	Max exit velocityStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Eldridge, Bryce SF · L	0.66	Strikeout rateWalk rate	Player · Projection
Greene, Riley DET · L	0.64	Fly-ball ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	8	2026-07-12	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| BB, K, 3 R
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-14 vs TOR1 HR \| 3 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-12 vs WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| HR, RBI, R

xwOBA Δ	+0.058
wOBA Δ	+0.117

Hitter Projections 20260.308 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR \| 1 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	3-4 \| BB, K, 3 R
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-14 vs TOR1 HR \| 3 RBI / 11 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| HR, BB, K
2026-04-12 vs WSH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 12 Ch \| 1 E	2-4 \| HR, RBI, R

Jake Bauers

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail