Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 199 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-29 |
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 199 lb · Age 22
Club Milwaukee Brewers
Position LF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 573 | 80 | 145 | 21 | 22 | .275 | .327 | .464 | .791 |
| 2025 | 589 | 88 | 148 | 21 | 21 | .270 | .308 | .463 | .771 |
| 2026 | 283 | 44 | 74 | 13 | 8 | .284 | .336 | .498 | .834 |
| 3 Seasons | 1445 | 212 | 367 | 55 | 51 | .274 | .321 | .470 | .791 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
83
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.334 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.332 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.318
0.332
0.347
0.360
wOBA
0.348
0.366
0.385
0.404
0.421
ISO
0.171
0.187
0.204
0.220
0.236
K%
19.6%
21.0%
22.4%
23.9%
25.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
92
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity92.3
93
Hard-hit%46.8%
82
xBA0.342
71
xSLG0.643
85
xwOBA0.334
74
BB%6.8%
27
Bat speed72.9
88
K%24.3%
40
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
51
Arm Strength94.1 · LF
61
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs1.7 · LF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
59
Bolts22.0 · LF
81
Sprint Speed28.7 · LF
86
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions64.3% · rebadged research
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
20
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
9
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Chourio’s wOBA sits at 0.385, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.334 — a gap of 0.051, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 296 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.69 | xwOBA on contactOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Smith, Cam HOU · R | 0.66 | xwOBA on contactHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Ramos, Heliot SF · R | 0.65 | Avg exit velocityOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Pages, Andy LAD · R | 0.62 | Oppo rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 9 | 2026-06-30 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.323 xwOBA | 21 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ CHC0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | BB, K |