{ "date": "2026-03-23", "generated_at": "2026-03-23T17:15:11.607162", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic", "projection_date": "2026-03-23", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 279, "matched_count": 279, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 279, "matched_rows": 279, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 49, "under_recommendation_count": 0, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 11, "lean_count": 38, "no_play_count": 230, "average_edge_over": -0.0019, "average_edge_under": -0.0358, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 279, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 295, "under_odds": -370, "expected_home_runs": 0.3889, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3222, "model_over_probability": 0.3222, "model_under_probability": 0.6778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2532, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2434, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7566, "edge_over": 0.069, "edge_under": -0.1094, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.069, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.148, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 74.1, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3889, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3222, "model_over_probability": 0.3222, "model_under_probability": 0.6778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0658, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0658, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.148, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 72.5, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.3889, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.3222, "model_over_probability": 0.3222, "model_under_probability": 0.6778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7491, "edge_over": 0.0625, "edge_under": -0.0975, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0625, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.148, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.926, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 70.8, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7792, "edge_over": 0.0622, "edge_under": -0.1034, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0622, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 69.2, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0595, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0595, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 67.9, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.3454, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2921, "model_over_probability": 0.2921, "model_under_probability": 0.7079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7727, "edge_over": 0.0568, "edge_under": -0.0921, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0568, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.051, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.024, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 66.5, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2748, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "model_over_probability": 0.2403, "model_under_probability": 0.7597, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": 0.0516, "edge_under": -0.091, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0516, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.15, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.128, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": 44.7, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.3097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2663, "model_over_probability": 0.2663, "model_under_probability": 0.7337, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2069, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7931, "edge_over": 0.0512, "edge_under": -0.0909, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.143, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": 57.8, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.2748, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "model_over_probability": 0.2403, "model_under_probability": 0.7597, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.186, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.814, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": -0.0816, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.15, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.128, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 44.3, "value_rank": 17, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "hitter_id": 666160, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2748, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2403, "model_over_probability": 0.2403, "model_under_probability": 0.7597, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.15, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.128, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": 44.3, "value_rank": 18, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-23T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.3097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2663, "model_over_probability": 0.2663, "model_under_probability": 0.7337, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0465, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0465, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.143, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": 56.2, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, 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