Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	169	16	35	3	3	.232	.298	.338	.636
2025	484	56	100	11	8	.224	.269	.359	.628
2026	408	49	99	18	11	.260	.296	.475	.771
3 Seasons	1061	121	234	32	22	.239	.284	.401	.685

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

54

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

47

Defense4 metrics

52

Speed3 metrics

50

Plate skills10 metrics

31

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.273
xwOBA current pace	0.305
xwOBA rolling p50	0.294
Observed weight	66%

xwOBA

0.269 0.281 0.294 0.307 0.319

wOBA

0.331 0.345 0.361 0.377 0.391

ISO

0.175 0.187 0.200 0.214 0.226

K%

19.9% 20.9% 21.9% 23.0% 23.9%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.9%

66 +46 vs proj

Exit velocity86.4

34

Hard-hit%36.1%

39 +16 vs proj

xBA0.334

70

xSLG0.533

59

xwOBA0.305

53 +30 vs proj

BB%3.1%

4 -18 vs proj

Bat speed69.0

41

K%21.6%

58

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs1.8 · LF

87

Arm Strength96.8 · LF

72

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF

13

Range Runs-1.3 · LF

35

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.7 · LF

58

SB Success Rate76.9% · LF

39

Sprint Speed27.6 · LF

53

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.2% · rebadged research

14

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research

33

Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research

17

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91

13

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · borderline

11

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample

1

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample

68

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample

20

Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated

46

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated

84

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Angel Martínez's production (79) outpaces the tools grade (66) by 13 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

243 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.361

xwOBA (deserved)0.305

Martínez’s wOBA sits at 0.361, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.305 — a gap of 0.056, -2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 426 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Dingler, Dillon DET · R	0.67	Oppo rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection
Carrigg, Cole COL · L	0.63	xwOBA on contactHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Peña, Jeremy HOU · R	0.61	Oppo rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
McCarthy, Jake COL · L	0.59	Oppo rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-19	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.276 xwOBA \| 12 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-05-20 @ DET0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 3B, RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K, CS
2026-04-15 @ STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-14 @ STL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, 2 RBI

Age	24
Height	5' 11"
Weight	200 lb
Debut	2024-06-22

xwOBA Δ	+0.029
wOBA Δ	+0.085

Hitter Projections 20260.276 xwOBA \| 12 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-05-20 @ DET0 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 3B, RBI, R
2026-04-17 vs BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K, CS
2026-04-15 @ STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-14 @ STL0 HR \| 2 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, 2 RBI

Angel Martínez

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail