Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| Debut | 2019-08-21 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Jake Fraley
RF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 11", 206 lb · Age 31
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position RF
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 382 | 44 | 97 | 5 | 20 | .277 | .330 | .386 | .716 |
| 2025 | 217 | 31 | 46 | 6 | 4 | .241 | .332 | .382 | .714 |
| 2026 | 90 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 3 | .232 | .300 | .390 | .690 |
| 8 Seasons | 1651 | 188 | 359 | 49 | 64 | .247 | .331 | .401 | .732 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.276 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.274
0.290
0.306
0.321
wOBA
0.325
0.354
0.386
0.418
0.446
ISO
0.119
0.140
0.163
0.186
0.207
K%
18.1%
20.2%
22.5%
24.9%
27.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
60
+38 vs proj
Exit velocity84.6
13
Hard-hit%26.9%
10
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.496
45
xwOBA0.276
20
BB%9.5%
62
Bat speed69.4
47
K%26.7%
29
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.9 · RF
42
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · RF
15
Sprint Speed28.3 · RF
77
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.0% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
21
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.299 · validated thin sample
13
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
75
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.098 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Fraley’s wOBA sits at 0.386, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.276 — a gap of 0.110, -2.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.288 xwOBA | 9 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 vs CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2B, BB, K |
| 2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | SB |
| 2026-04-15 @ CWS1 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-12 vs NYY0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-08 vs CHC0 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 1 E | 1-3 | BB, 2 K, RBI |