Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-03-24 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-03-24
0 activated plays
Gap rows 219
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-03-25 Older: 2026-03-23

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Corey Seager

Play

TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo

Value Score 69.2
Odds / Gap +335 / +6.22%
1+ HR 29.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.031x

Value Rank #2

Ronald Acuña Jr.

Play

ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot

Value Score 59.1
Odds / Gap +380 / +5.66%
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.010x

Value Rank #3

Kerry Carpenter

Play

DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 57.1
Odds / Gap +360 / +4.91%
1+ HR 26.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.130x

Value Rank #4

Giancarlo Stanton

Lean

NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera

Value Score 55.4
Odds / Gap +295 / +3.57%
1+ HR 28.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.985x

Value Rank #5

José Ramírez

Play

CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka

Value Score 55.0
Odds / Gap +395 / +5.56%
1+ HR 25.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.000x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 29.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+6.22%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
+5.95%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+5.68%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+5.66%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+5.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -460
+5.21%
20.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 25.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -515
+5.56%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +385 / U --
+5.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +380 / U -480
+4.93%
20.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Mickey Moniak headshot

Mickey Moniak
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+5.16%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -530
+4.80%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+4.80%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+4.96%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+4.78%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+4.60%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+4.91%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+4.67%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -430
+4.43%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 102.8
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.79%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+4.47%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+4.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.76%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+4.44%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+4.44%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.73%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+4.41%
17.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -675
+4.35%
16.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -630
+4.21%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+4.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Trent Grisham headshot

Trent Grisham
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
+3.74%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
+3.58%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+3.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 28.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+3.57%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
+3.25%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+2.92%
25.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.47%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.37%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+3.31%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+3.17%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+3.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+3.16%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+3.00%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+2.84%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
+3.13%
20.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +370 / U --
+2.90%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -455
+2.67%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -990
+2.96%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +685 / U -1050
+2.88%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +685 / U --
+2.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +480 / U -660
+2.59%
16.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -615
+2.44%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.44%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.8
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+2.54%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+2.42%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+2.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Will Smith headshot

Will Smith
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+2.46%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+2.35%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+2.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+2.38%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+2.22%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+2.05%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.94%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.56%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+1.91%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+1.77%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+1.63%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -545
+1.80%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+1.61%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -510
+1.41%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +760 / U -1130
+1.55%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +755 / U -1195
+1.48%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +755 / U --
+1.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 100.8
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.44%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.12%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.3
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.23%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.73%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.5
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+1.17%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+1.17%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+1.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+1.14%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.86%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1385
+1.10%
9.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1465
+0.94%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.9
Dillon Dingler headshot

Dillon Dingler
DET vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +750 / U -1105
+1.05%
11.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +745 / U -1170
+0.98%
11.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +740 / U --
+0.91%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 101.5
Michael Harris II headshot

Michael Harris II
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
+0.75%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+0.65%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+0.65%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -445
+0.72%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
+0.21%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +335 / U -415
-0.05%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+0.59%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+0.42%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +975 / U -1790
+0.34%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +680 / U -970
+0.57%
12.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1030
+0.57%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+0.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
David Fry headshot

David Fry
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.45%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.31%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+0.17%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -810
+0.40%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+0.29%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -760
+0.18%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -395
+0.25%
23.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +305 / U --
-0.34%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +300 / U -370
-0.65%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.12%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.46%
17.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-0.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
-0.12%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
-0.70%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
-3.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 94.2
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
-0.18%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
-0.30%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
-0.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
-0.26%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-0.26%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
-0.26%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.32%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.78%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 100.7
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -995
-0.32%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
-0.32%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-0.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Danny Jansen headshot

Danny Jansen
TEX vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
-0.35%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
-0.46%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
-0.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.56%
17.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-1.31%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-2.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.61%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.43%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.87%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.3
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -875
-0.64%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +630 / U -930
-1.19%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-2.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.1
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
-0.66%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
-0.77%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
-0.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
-0.68%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -545
-1.03%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-1.03%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 102.1
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
-0.76%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
-0.84%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
-0.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.8
Jake Fraley headshot

Jake Fraley
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +660 / U -935
-0.79%
12.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +660 / U -995
-0.79%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +660 / U --
-0.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
-0.91%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
-1.04%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
-1.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.7
Angel Martínez headshot

Angel Martínez
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
-0.92%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
-1.06%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1610
-1.11%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.4
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs DET | Justin Verlander | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
-0.93%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
-0.93%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-0.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 99.4
Isaac Collins headshot

Isaac Collins
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1350
-1.00%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1430
-1.17%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +850 / U --
-1.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.2
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-1.01%
15.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-1.69%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-2.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 29.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +225 / U -275
-1.03%
29.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-1.51%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +215 / U -255
-1.57%
30.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -805
-1.17%
14.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -755
-1.28%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
-1.28%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.7
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 28.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +235 / U -290
-1.21%
28.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +225 / U -270
-1.61%
29.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +230 / U --
-1.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.4
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-1.26%
14.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +575 / U -820
-1.88%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
-2.18%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.2
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +985 / U -1645
-1.26%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +965 / U --
-1.43%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +960 / U -1735
-1.47%
9.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs LAA | Jack Kochanowicz | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.27%
19.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +380 / U -475
-1.69%
20.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.9
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -425
-1.28%
22.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +325 / U -395
-1.51%
22.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-1.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Gavin Lux headshot

Gavin Lux
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.30%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.30%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.30%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +365 / U -470
-1.32%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -440
-1.67%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.6
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -720
-1.48%
15.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +545 / U -770
-1.82%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-1.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.51%
19.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-1.57%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-1.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.4
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +860 / U -1345
-1.52%
10.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +850 / U --
-1.63%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1425
-1.68%
10.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Sean Murphy headshot

Sean Murphy
ATL vs TB | Ryan Pepiot | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-1.54%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-1.68%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.71%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Starling Marte headshot

Starling Marte
KC vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +925 / U -1500
-1.56%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +910 / U --
-1.70%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +905 / U -1585
-1.75%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.1
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.64%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.71%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 94.8
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
-1.65%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
-1.73%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-1.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.1

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%