Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-14 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-14
0 activated plays
Gap rows 234
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-17 Older: 2026-05-07

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Josh Naylor

Play

SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows

Value Score 36.7
Odds / Gap +495 / +5.68%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.146x

Value Rank #2

Julio Rodríguez

Play

SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows

Value Score 35.5
Odds / Gap +460 / +4.68%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.146x

Value Rank #3

Francisco Lindor

Lean

NYM vs DET | Keider Montero

Value Score 31.6
Odds / Gap +420 / +2.95%
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.057x

Value Rank #4

Iván Herrera

Play

STL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 28.9
Odds / Gap +635 / +6.52%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.132x

Value Rank #5

Randy Arozarena

Play

SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows

Value Score 28.2
Odds / Gap +595 / +6.18%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.146x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+8.69%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+8.53%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+8.53%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+8.52%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+8.40%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+8.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.34%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+8.34%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.63%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-11.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+8.16%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+8.09%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+8.09%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+7.65%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+7.57%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+7.59%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+7.52%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+6.60%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+6.49%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+6.43%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.9
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+6.52%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+6.43%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+6.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+6.18%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+6.08%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+6.08%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.90%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+5.90%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
+4.42%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-8.88%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.73%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+5.64%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+5.68%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+5.54%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+5.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.67%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.67%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.21%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.08%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.96%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+5.02%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.90%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.90%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.97%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.97%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.85%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+4.74%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+4.83%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.83%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.70%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.61%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+4.68%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.52%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+4.36%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.68%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.62%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+4.52%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+4.39%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+4.43%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+4.32%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+4.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+4.42%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+4.29%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+4.24%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+4.06%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+3.93%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+3.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+4.03%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+3.86%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+3.82%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.02%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+3.91%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+3.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.98%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.83%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+3.78%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+3.72%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+3.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.72%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.63%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1190
+3.64%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +780 / U -1260
+3.52%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +780 / U --
+3.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+3.29%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+3.13%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+2.96%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+3.22%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+3.22%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+3.17%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+3.05%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+3.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.15%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.06%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.06%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+3.00%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.72%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.95%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+2.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+2.57%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1145
+2.92%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+2.78%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+2.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+2.76%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+2.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+2.44%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+2.58%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.47%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.58%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.46%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+2.47%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+2.39%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+2.39%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+2.38%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+2.27%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+2.22%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.3
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.35%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.24%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.22%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.08%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+1.94%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.17%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+0.83%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+2.11%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+2.11%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+2.03%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.84%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.71%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.71%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+1.78%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+1.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+1.35%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+1.77%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+1.63%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+1.74%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.62%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+1.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+1.74%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+1.74%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+1.66%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.6
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.62%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.23%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.10%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.97%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.17%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.98%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.79%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.00%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.86%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.86%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.86%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.73%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+0.60%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.68%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.68%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.2
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.64%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.19%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-4.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.44%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.44%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.44%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.39%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
+0.16%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-0.07%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.36%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.05%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+0.25%
17.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -620
-0.46%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-3.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs HOU | Mike Burrows | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+0.17%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
-1.11%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-3.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.38%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.55%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.73%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.52%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.52%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.4
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.62%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.83%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.05%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.62%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.26%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.65%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.11%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.35%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-0.65%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-1.02%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.76%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.65%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.83%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.83%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.87%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-1.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
-1.23%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-0.96%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.80%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-2.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.98%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.16%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.34%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs COL | Chase Dollander | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.16%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.95%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs KC | Kris Bubic | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.42%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.42%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.8
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.56%
17.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-1.69%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.86%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%