{ "date": "2026-05-14", "generated_at": "2026-05-13T22:09:10.459766", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 144, "odds_matched_count": 78, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 27, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 824196, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.224, "expected_home_runs": 0.2536, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2241, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team": "HOU", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "game_id": 824196, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131, "expected_home_runs": 0.2397, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2132, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.6, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team": "ATH", "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "game_id": 825008, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 390, "over_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979, "expected_home_runs": 0.2205, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.198, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.37, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team": "SEA", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824196, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 460, "over_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2254, "expected_home_runs": 0.2554, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2255, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 50.2, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 823630, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981, "expected_home_runs": 0.2208, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1983, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.83, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team": "NYM", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "game_id": 823630, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 320, "over_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2201, "expected_home_runs": 0.2486, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2202, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.47, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823383, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 380, "over_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1846, "expected_home_runs": 0.2041, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1848, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.38, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team": "PIT", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 823383, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 395, "over_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1827, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 46.75, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "hitter_id": 663656, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "game_id": 823950, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 430, "over_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789, "expected_home_runs": 0.1971, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1791, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.67, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team": "PHI", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "game_id": 824762, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 440, "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "expected_home_runs": 0.2002, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1815, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 45.42, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.224, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Christian Walker", "team": "HOU", "opponent": "SEA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2131, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.6 }, { "player_name": "Shea Langeliers", "team": "ATH", "opponent": "STL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 390, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1979, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.37 }, { "player_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 460, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2254, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 50.2 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Polanco", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 47.83 }, { "player_name": "Juan Soto", "team": "NYM", "opponent": "DET", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 320, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2201, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 47.47 }, { "player_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 380, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1846, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 47.38 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Lowe", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 395, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 46.75 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Tucker", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SF", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 430, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1789, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 45.67 }, { "player_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "BOS", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 45.42 } ] } }