Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-07 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-07
0 activated plays
Gap rows 216
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-14 Older: 2026-05-04

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana

Value Score 50.0
Odds / Gap +695 / +9.87%
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.127x

Value Rank #2

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer

Value Score 38.7
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.28%
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.007x

Value Rank #3

Francisco Lindor

Lean

NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana

Value Score 37.0
Odds / Gap +420 / +3.73%
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.127x

Value Rank #4

Marcus Semien

Strong

NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana

Value Score 36.1
Odds / Gap +605 / +7.40%
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.127x

Value Rank #5

Gunnar Henderson

Lean

BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer

Value Score 34.9
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.47%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.007x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +9.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+9.87%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+9.87%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+9.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.28%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.28%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+7.40%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+7.29%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+7.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+7.16%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+7.01%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+6.96%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+7.02%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.89%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+6.59%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+6.47%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+6.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.50%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+6.50%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+4.65%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-9.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+6.42%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+6.30%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+6.30%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.05%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.98%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+6.01%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+5.93%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.90%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.79%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.65%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+5.52%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.63%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.53%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.53%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.44%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+5.33%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+5.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.32%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.32%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.24%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.24%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.12%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.03%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.11%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.05%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+5.03%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.03%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.97%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.97%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.81%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.69%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.64%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+4.64%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.56%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+4.61%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+4.45%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+4.45%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.58%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.58%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+4.55%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.39%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.34%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.7
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+4.53%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+4.22%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+4.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.47%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.14%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.35%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.24%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+4.19%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+4.23%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.09%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.04%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.17%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.09%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+4.16%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.04%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.92%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.82%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.82%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+3.73%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+3.54%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+3.35%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+3.72%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+3.61%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+3.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+3.71%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+3.71%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+3.52%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+3.38%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+3.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+3.47%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+3.35%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.7
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+3.41%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+3.27%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+3.22%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
+3.36%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
+3.16%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
+3.09%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.7
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.17%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.83%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+2.79%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+2.66%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+2.61%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.56%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+2.24%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.50%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.36%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.22%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.43%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.43%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.40%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.24%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.24%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+2.21%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+1.93%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+2.16%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.04%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.10%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.91%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.72%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.01%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.71%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.98%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.81%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.64%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+1.96%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
+0.78%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-5.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.94%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.94%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.89%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+1.68%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+1.47%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+1.63%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+1.47%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+1.31%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+1.38%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+1.27%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs ATH | J.t. Ginn | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.34%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.02%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.20%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.89%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+0.65%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+0.52%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+0.52%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.05%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.26%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.26%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.02%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.17%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.36%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.22%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.22%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.25%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.75%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.38%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.38%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-0.50%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-0.66%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-0.82%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.61%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.64%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.06%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.31%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.57%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs COL | Jose Quintana | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -395
-1.14%
22.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -425
-1.65%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-1.92%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs MIA | Max Meyer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.14%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.72%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.24%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.23%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.90%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.26%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.66%
19.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.48%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.63%
19.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.49%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.64%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%