Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2025-09-15
0 activated plays
Gap rows 261
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-03-22 Older: 2025-09-14

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Matt Wallner

Play

MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 66.2
Odds / Gap +350 / +5.99%
1+ HR 28.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.978x

Value Rank #2

Yordan Alvarez

Play

HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter

Value Score 63.8
Odds / Gap +360 / +5.88%
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.994x

Value Rank #3

Ronald Acuña Jr.

Play

ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker

Value Score 59.1
Odds / Gap +380 / +5.66%
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.987x

Value Rank #4

Marcell Ozuna

Lean

PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon

Value Score 51.8
Odds / Gap +355 / +4.01%
1+ HR 26.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Pitcher-Friendly | HR 0.916x

Value Rank #5

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Play

NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson

Value Score 49.1
Odds / Gap +410 / +5.18%
1+ HR 24.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.978x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 28.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -445
+5.99%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
+5.48%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+5.22%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+5.88%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+5.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+5.40%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+5.66%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+5.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -460
+5.21%
20.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -545
+5.18%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+4.99%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -510
+4.79%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.73%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+4.41%
17.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 25.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+4.13%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+3.91%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+3.68%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+4.12%
15.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+3.86%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+3.86%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -460
+4.01%
21.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
+3.77%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+3.52%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+3.88%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+3.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+3.60%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+3.62%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+3.52%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.47%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.37%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+3.14%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+3.14%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.14%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -675
+2.95%
16.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -630
+2.81%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.91%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+2.81%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Lars Nootbaar headshot

Lars Nootbaar
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +735 / U -1075
+2.78%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1140
+2.71%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +730 / U --
+2.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+2.61%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+2.61%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+2.54%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Anthony Santander headshot

Anthony Santander
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -490
+2.07%
20.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +370 / U --
+1.62%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -460
+1.39%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -820
+1.38%
14.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+1.27%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Michael Harris II headshot

Michael Harris II
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
+1.35%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+1.25%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+1.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 26.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+1.25%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
+0.93%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+0.60%
25.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.43%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.45%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 31.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +225 / U -275
+0.27%
29.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-0.21%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +215 / U -255
-0.71%
30.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -475
+0.20%
20.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.66%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-3.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+0.12%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+0.02%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+0.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -600
-0.11%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +470 / U -640
-0.89%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-3.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.9
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.14%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -585
-0.92%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-3.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Jordan Walker headshot

Jordan Walker
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +815 / U -1245
-0.25%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +805 / U -1320
-0.37%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +805 / U --
-0.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Nolan Gorman headshot

Nolan Gorman
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.30%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-0.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.69%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.3
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -440
-0.40%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +365 / U -470
-1.38%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.4
Will Smith headshot

Will Smith
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
-0.45%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
-0.56%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
-0.56%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.46%
16.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.19%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-2.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 98.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -425
-0.47%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-0.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +325 / U -395
-1.01%
22.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Davis Schneider headshot

Davis Schneider
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-0.62%
15.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-1.30%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-2.80%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.71%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.88%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.05%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.75%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.25%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
-0.83%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
-0.99%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-0.99%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Will Benson headshot

Will Benson
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -705
-0.84%
15.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +535 / U -755
-1.56%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
-2.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Sean Murphy headshot

Sean Murphy
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-0.90%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-1.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.19%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -350
-0.91%
25.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +300 / U -375
-1.87%
24.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -920
-0.92%
12.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +650 / U -975
-1.42%
12.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-2.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1220
-0.92%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
-1.04%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
-1.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Lenyn Sosa headshot

Lenyn Sosa
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -810
-0.92%
14.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +595 / U -860
-1.49%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
-2.58%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
-0.92%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
-0.92%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
-1.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -885
-0.94%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -940
-0.94%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
-1.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -840
-0.96%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -790
-1.07%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
-1.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.9
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
-0.97%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
-0.97%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-1.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -995
-0.98%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
-0.98%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-0.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 28.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +235 / U -290
-1.01%
28.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +230 / U --
-1.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +225 / U -270
-1.81%
29.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.01%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.83%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.6
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.05%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1145 / U --
-1.08%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1130 / U -2315
-1.18%
7.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.08%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.90%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-2.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-1.11%
17.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-1.97%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-2.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-1.13%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.29%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.46%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.15%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.51%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.9
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.15%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -875
-1.20%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +630 / U -930
-1.75%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-2.33%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
-1.23%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -445
-1.57%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-2.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -665
-1.31%
16.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +510 / U -710
-2.01%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
-2.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Trent Grisham headshot

Trent Grisham
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
-1.31%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
-1.47%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.9
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-1.32%
16.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-1.98%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-2.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.1
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-1.34%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.50%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-1.66%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.34%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -580
-1.35%
17.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -620
-1.80%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-2.12%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.39%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.89%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Oneil Cruz headshot

Oneil Cruz
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -925
-1.39%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -870
-1.48%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-1.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-1.41%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-2.01%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-2.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.6
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.42%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.92%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.08%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.45%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.65%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-1.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 100.8
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
-1.45%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
-1.45%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-1.53%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.46%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1135 / U --
-1.56%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1125 / U -2295
-1.62%
7.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +745 / U -1100
-1.47%
11.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +740 / U -1165
-1.54%
11.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +740 / U --
-1.54%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Andy Pages headshot

Andy Pages
LAD vs PHI | Ranger Suarez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-1.49%
14.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +575 / U -820
-1.83%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
-1.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
-1.49%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
-1.61%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
-1.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CIN | Zack Littell | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -790
-1.49%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
-1.72%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
-1.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -795
-1.50%
14.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +585 / U -850
-1.50%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
-1.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs WSH | Mitchell Parker | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -755
-1.53%
14.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +565 / U -805
-1.81%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
-1.92%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs TEX | Jack Leiter | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1065
-1.60%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1130
-1.94%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
-2.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs MIN | Simeon Woods Richardson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +985 / U -1645
-1.60%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +965 / U --
-1.77%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +960 / U -1735
-1.81%
9.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-1.61%
14.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +570 / U -815
-1.83%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
-1.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Joey Bart headshot

Joey Bart
PIT vs CHC | Jameson Taillon | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +835 / U -1290
-1.62%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1365
-1.98%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +825 / U --
-2.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 101.8
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs TB | Joe Boyle | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +840 / U -1300
-1.63%
10.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +830 / U --
-1.74%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1375
-1.80%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -875
-1.64%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +630 / U -930
-1.64%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-1.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -805
-1.65%
14.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -755
-1.69%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
-1.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.3
Dylan Crews headshot

Dylan Crews
WSH vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1035
-1.67%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
-1.67%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
-1.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Kyle Teel headshot

Kyle Teel
CWS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -845
-1.67%
13.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -900
-1.74%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
-1.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
-1.67%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-1.77%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
-1.78%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs AZ | Zac Gallen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
-1.69%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
-1.82%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
-1.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%