Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	405	39	85	12	7	.244	.342	.417	.759
2025	583	68	119	13	4	.234	.325	.361	.686
2026	325	38	67	8	2	.241	.343	.385	.728
6 Seasons	2287	287	474	66	30	.242	.341	.403	.744

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

82

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

80

Defense4 metrics

67

Speed1 metrics

50

Plate skills10 metrics

47

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.336
xwOBA current pace	0.346
xwOBA rolling p50	0.342
Observed weight	60%

xwOBA

0.318 0.329 0.342 0.355 0.366

wOBA

0.297 0.313 0.330 0.348 0.364

ISO

0.127 0.140 0.156 0.171 0.184

K%

17.6% 18.8% 20.2% 21.6% 22.8%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.8%

78

Exit velocity91.6

92

Hard-hit%50.0%

94

xBA0.330

64

xSLG0.584

76

xwOBA0.346

90

BB%13.5%

94

Bat speed70.7

68

K%20.3%

65

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.6 · LF

69

Arm Strength95.4 · LF

63

Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF

80

Range Runs0.8 · LF

57

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.5 · LF

50

SB Success Rate100.0% · LF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9% · rebadged research

84

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1% · rebadged research

12

Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research

40

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · borderline

21

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample

94

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample

36

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample

74

Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated

24

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371 · validated

22

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102

58

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Lars Nootbaar's production (74) outpaces the tools grade (64) by 10 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+9.0° Current 7° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.330

xwOBA (deserved)0.346

Nootbaar’s wOBA sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.346 — a gap of 0.016, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 325 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-09-25	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	18	2026-09-25	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +1.993

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.346 xwOBA \| 15 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| BB, 2 K, SB

Age	29
Height	6' 1"
Weight	205 lb
Debut	2021-06-22

xwOBA Δ	-0.000
wOBA Δ	-0.016

Hitter Projections 20260.346 xwOBA \| 15 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| BB, 2 K, SB

Lars Nootbaar

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Module shelf

Available detail