Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2025-08-28
0 activated plays
Gap rows 270
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2025-08-29 Older: 2025-08-27

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-03 2026-07-02 2026-07-01 2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Juan Soto

Play

NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur

Value Score 71.8
Odds / Gap +315 / +6.45%
1+ HR 30.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.002x

Value Rank #2

Yordan Alvarez

Play

HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland

Value Score 63.8
Odds / Gap +360 / +5.88%
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.017x

Value Rank #3

Tyler O'Neill

Play

BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet

Value Score 59.3
Odds / Gap +380 / +5.69%
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.053x

Value Rank #4

Ronald Acuña Jr.

Play

ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 59.1
Odds / Gap +380 / +5.66%
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.056x

Value Rank #5

Marcell Ozuna

Play

PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas

Value Score 57.9
Odds / Gap +355 / +4.90%
1+ HR 26.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.965x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 30.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -400
+6.45%
23.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +310 / U --
+6.16%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +305 / U -375
+5.86%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 27.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+5.88%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+5.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+5.40%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+5.69%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+5.47%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -460
+5.24%
20.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+5.66%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+5.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -460
+5.21%
20.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -545
+5.18%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+4.99%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -510
+4.79%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 26.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -460
+4.90%
21.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
+4.66%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+4.41%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.73%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+4.41%
17.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+4.42%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
+4.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
+4.03%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 25.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+4.37%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+4.15%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+3.92%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -820
+3.65%
14.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+3.54%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+3.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.47%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.37%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+3.45%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+3.29%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+3.12%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Michael Harris II headshot

Michael Harris II
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 8
Lean
Best Gap +3.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -950
+3.25%
13.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.15%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+2.89%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+2.81%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+2.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+2.84%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+2.84%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+2.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 28.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -340
+2.20%
25.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
+1.84%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +265 / U -315
+1.47%
26.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.5
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.89%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.71%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.53%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.6
Seiya Suzuki headshot

Seiya Suzuki
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -555
+1.44%
18.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -595
+0.56%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-4.86%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 96.6
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -710
+1.41%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -665
+1.27%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.6
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 26.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+1.21%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
+0.89%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+0.56%
25.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Luis Robert Jr. headshot

Luis Robert Jr.
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap +1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.16%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.03%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.90%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+1.02%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+0.96%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+0.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+0.95%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+0.63%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Masataka Yoshida headshot

Masataka Yoshida
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1375
+0.82%
9.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+0.66%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+0.66%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+0.80%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.65%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.50%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.1
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+0.65%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+0.55%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+0.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+0.61%
15.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.06%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-4.11%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 97.7
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +365 / U -470
+0.59%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.36%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -440
+0.12%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.4
Jordan Westburg headshot

Jordan Westburg
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+0.54%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+0.40%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +565 / U -805
+0.50%
14.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +560 / U -755
+0.39%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +560 / U --
+0.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -490
+0.46%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -520
-0.36%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-3.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.2
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.40%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +365 / U -470
-0.75%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 96.4
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1065
+0.36%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1130
+0.36%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+0.28%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.9
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 31.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +225 / U -275
+0.23%
29.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-0.25%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +215 / U -255
-0.75%
30.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.18%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.01%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.16%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Carson Kelly headshot

Carson Kelly
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -880
+0.09%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +630 / U -935
-0.45%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
-3.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 98.2
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -410
+0.09%
22.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-0.19%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +315 / U -385
-0.48%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+0.07%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.07%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.1
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+0.00%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
-0.11%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
-0.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
-0.03%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
-0.11%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-0.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.06%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.24%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.42%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Romy Gonzalez headshot

Romy Gonzalez
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
-0.12%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
-0.12%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
-0.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -820
-0.16%
13.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -870
-0.72%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
-3.36%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.5
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
-0.16%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
-0.16%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
-0.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -725
-0.21%
15.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +545 / U -770
-0.84%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
-3.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.0
Sean Murphy headshot

Sean Murphy
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-0.23%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-0.52%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.27%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.61%
17.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-0.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Pete Crow-Armstrong headshot

Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -750
-0.31%
14.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +560 / U -800
-0.96%
14.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
-3.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.2
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.42%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.92%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.08%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 99.9
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -595
-0.45%
17.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -555
-0.79%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.79%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
-0.59%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.93%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -785
-0.66%
14.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
-0.77%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -735
-0.89%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.5
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
-0.68%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
-0.68%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-0.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.71%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.89%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-1.07%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.3
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
-0.78%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
-0.78%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
-0.88%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Triston Casas headshot

Triston Casas
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
-0.85%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
-1.02%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.2
Adrian Del Castillo headshot

Adrian Del Castillo
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -810
-0.87%
14.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +595 / U -865
-1.50%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
-2.63%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Edmundo Sosa headshot

Edmundo Sosa
PHI vs ATL | Cal Quantrill | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
-0.88%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -855
-0.98%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
-0.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Pavin Smith headshot

Pavin Smith
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -785
-0.88%
14.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +580 / U -835
-1.48%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
-2.63%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Oneil Cruz headshot

Oneil Cruz
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -925
-0.92%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -870
-1.01%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
-1.01%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Brett Baty headshot

Brett Baty
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap -0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
-0.93%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -860
-1.03%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
-1.03%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.5
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.95%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.45%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.96%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-1.19%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.42%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +300 / U -375
-0.97%
24.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-1.61%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +285 / U -350
-1.81%
25.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
-1.01%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
-1.01%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-1.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -795
-1.02%
14.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +585 / U -850
-1.02%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
-1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Colton Cowser headshot

Colton Cowser
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap -1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -730
-1.13%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.39%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. headshot

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.13%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.26%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.26%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
-1.14%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
-1.29%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 95.3
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-1.16%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.32%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.49%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs BOS | Garrett Crochet | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +750 / U -1110
-1.16%
11.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +745 / U -1175
-1.23%
11.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
-1.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.9
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.18%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1135 / U --
-1.28%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1125 / U -2295
-1.34%
7.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
-1.21%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.54%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 103.0
Kyle Teel headshot

Kyle Teel
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
-1.22%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
-1.31%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
-1.31%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.28%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.28%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.28%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1435
-1.30%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +885 / U --
-1.45%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +880 / U -1515
-1.50%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.1
Trent Grisham headshot

Trent Grisham
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
-1.34%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
-1.50%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.9
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -920
-1.37%
12.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +650 / U -975
-1.87%
12.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
-2.16%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-1.37%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-1.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
-1.69%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Lenyn Sosa headshot

Lenyn Sosa
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -810
-1.41%
14.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +595 / U -860
-1.98%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
-2.09%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs MIL | Jose Quintana | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -775
-1.46%
14.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +575 / U -825
-1.92%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
-2.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.5
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.46%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.96%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.04%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.4
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-1.51%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-1.62%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-1.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.6
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.52%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.64%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 97.3
Francisco Alvarez headshot

Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +480 / U -625
-1.56%
16.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -665
-1.74%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.7
Joey Bart headshot

Joey Bart
PIT vs STL | Miles Mikolas | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +835 / U -1290
-1.56%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1365
-1.67%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +825 / U --
-1.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -960
-1.60%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1020
-1.60%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
-1.60%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +985 / U -1645
-1.61%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +965 / U --
-1.78%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +960 / U -1735
-1.82%
9.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.67%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.83%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.83%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 101.8
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs MIA | Adam Mazur | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -870
-1.70%
13.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +595 / U -820
-1.72%
13.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
-1.80%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 100.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 399
Latest Date 2026-07-03
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 207 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 50 / 39
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 40.3
 --
Signals --
2026-07-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 16 / 55 / 23
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-07-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 67 / 84 / 59
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Gavin Sheets | 56.5
 --
Signals --
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%