Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Carson Kelly

C · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 212 lb · Age 32

Cards
12
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position C Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024313326790.238.313.374.687
20254214892172.249.333.428.761
20264255798100.258.336.376.712
11 Seasons2648295547815.234.316.382.698
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
40
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
48
Defense4 metrics
50
Speed1 metrics
15
Plate skills12 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.311
xwOBA rolling p500.305
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.283 0.293 0.305 0.316 0.327
wOBA
0.323 0.337 0.352 0.367 0.381
ISO
0.112 0.123 0.136 0.148 0.159
K%
15.5% 16.5% 17.5% 18.6% 19.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
37
Exit velocity86.8
38
Hard-hit%36.9%
43
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.456
33
xwOBA0.311
58 +22 vs proj
BB%9.5%
64
Bat speed69.2
44
K%16.3%
85 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.6 · C
91
Catcher Throwing-2.4 · C
7
Framing Runs1.1 · C
65
Pop Time2.0 · C
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Fastball Stuff+74
0
Mithrandir Stuff+69
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
31
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Kelly, Carson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.311 2026-09-12: 0.3122026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3102026-09-18: 0.3132026-09-19: 0.3172026-09-20: 0.3172026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3122026-09-24: 0.3132026-09-25: 0.3132026-09-26: 0.311 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2026Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kelly, Carson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 100.0% FA100% · 65 mphprimary pitch FA 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Other: 100% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 64.8 mphFA65 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 29 74 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 1"
Weight212 lb
Debut2016-09-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.019
wOBA Δ+0.060

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.5σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.352
xwOBA (deserved)0.311

Kelly’s wOBA sits at 0.352, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.311 — a gap of 0.041, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 441 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R 0.79 Fly-ball rateGround-ball rate Player · Projection
Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L 0.78 Barrel rateSweet-spot rate Player · Projection
Crawford, J.P. SEA · L 0.76 Avg exit velocityIsolated power Player · Projection
Cortes, Carlos ATH · L 0.76 Ground-ball ratexwOBA on contact Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting52026-09-03Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding72026-09-241 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA | 16 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 2 E0-3 | 2 K
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-4 | R
2026-04-14 @ PHI1 HR | 3 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E2-4 | HR, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-13 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-2 | BB, R
2026-04-12 vs PIT0 HR | 1 RBI / 15 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, K, RBI