Mithrandir Metrics
Player CHC Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CHC

Carson Kelly

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 212 lb · Age 32

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club CHC Position -- Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024313326790.238.313.374.687
20254214892172.249.333.428.761
2026251356060.273.363.400.763
11 Seasons2474273509775.233.317.385.702
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
50
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
57
Defense4 metrics
45
Speed2 metrics
21
Plate skills11 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.328
xwOBA rolling p500.313
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.288 0.299 0.313 0.326 0.337
wOBA
0.354 0.372 0.392 0.413 0.431
ISO
0.117 0.131 0.147 0.162 0.177
K%
15.6% 16.7% 18.1% 19.4% 20.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
52 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%38.8%
49
xBA0.305
31
xSLG0.491
43
xwOBA0.328
71 +37 vs proj
BB%11.2%
79 +27 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%16.5%
82 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
81
Catcher Throwing-2.4 · C
5
Framing Runs-0.3 · C
45
Pop Time1.9 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · C
29
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
83
Mithrandir Stuff+64
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Kelly, Carson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.328 2026-07-05: 0.3212026-07-06: 0.3212026-07-07: 0.3232026-07-08: 0.3232026-07-09: 0.3232026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3242026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.328 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2026Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Kelly, Carson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 100.0% FA100% · 53 mphprimary pitch FA 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Carson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 24″48″72″96″ Other: 100% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 85″ drop, 53.3 mphFA53 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 6 71 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.037
wOBA Δ+0.101

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.1σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.392
xwOBA (deserved)0.328

Kelly’s wOBA sits at 0.392, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.064, -2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 267 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
Cortes, Carlos ATH · L 0.82 Isolated powerWhiff rate Player · Projection
Bohm, Alec PHI · R 0.80 In-zone contactSweet-spot rate Player · Projection
Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R 0.74 Bat speedIsolated power Player · Projection
Garcia, Maikel KC · R 0.72 xwOBA on contactOppo rate Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting32026-04-14Impact contact was the main driver
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA | 16 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 2 E0-3 | 2 K
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-4 | R
2026-04-14 @ PHI1 HR | 3 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E2-4 | HR, BB, 3 RBI
2026-04-13 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E1-2 | BB, R
2026-04-12 vs PIT0 HR | 1 RBI / 15 Ch | 0 E2-5 | 2B, K, RBI