Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	274	39	64	7	7	.257	.313	.422	.735
2025	261	30	67	11	1	.276	.307	.469	.776
2026	246	29	55	8	4	.242	.280	.410	.690
8 Seasons	1610	200	376	44	27	.255	.306	.414	.720

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

68

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

61

Defense4 metrics

47

Speed2 metrics

75

Plate skills10 metrics

32

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.304
xwOBA current pace	0.327
xwOBA rolling p50	0.316
Observed weight	54%

xwOBA

0.286 0.300 0.316 0.333 0.347

wOBA

0.299 0.316 0.336 0.356 0.374

ISO

0.130 0.146 0.165 0.183 0.199

K%

18.5% 20.2% 22.0% 23.8% 25.5%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%5.7%

64 +27 vs proj

Exit velocity87.9

50

Hard-hit%39.8%

57 +20 vs proj

xBA0.359

88

xSLG0.578

75

xwOBA0.327

75 +24 vs proj

BB%2.7%

3

Bat speed71.3

74

K%21.1%

61

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.9 · LF

28

Arm Strength84.8 · LF

1

Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF

80

Range Runs3.1 · LF

78

Baserunning · percentile strip

Bolts12.0 · LF

66

Sprint Speed28.7 · LF

84

SB Success Rate100.0% · LF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.3% · rebadged research

3

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research

26

Correct Decisions57.4% · rebadged research

4

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline

47

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample

12

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.311 · validated thin sample

6

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample

90

Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated

36

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.317 · validated

98

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline81

3

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Edmundo Sosa's production (87) outpaces the tools grade (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

132 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.336

xwOBA (deserved)0.327

Sosa’s wOBA sits at 0.336, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.327 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 261 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-09-18	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	12	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.148

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.303 xwOBA | 12 HR

Projection

xwOBA Δ	+0.025
wOBA Δ	+0.034

Edmundo Sosa

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail