Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 233 lb |
| Debut | 2022-09-30 |
Player profile / New York Mets
Francisco Álvarez
C · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 233 lb · Age 24
Club New York Mets
Position C
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 342 | 39 | 73 | 11 | 1 | .237 | .307 | .403 | .710 |
| 2025 | 277 | 32 | 63 | 11 | 0 | .256 | .339 | .447 | .786 |
| 2026 | 236 | 21 | 55 | 11 | 0 | .259 | .325 | .448 | .773 |
| 5 Seasons | 1292 | 146 | 273 | 59 | 3 | .235 | .309 | .433 | .742 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
77
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.312 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.294
0.308
0.323
0.338
0.351
wOBA
0.311
0.330
0.351
0.371
0.390
ISO
0.131
0.146
0.163
0.180
0.196
K%
22.2%
23.9%
25.8%
27.7%
29.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93
+21 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%42.1%
64
xBA0.344
73
xSLG0.642
85
xwOBA0.333
73
+19 vs proj
BB%7.4%
35
-16 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
83
K%25.4%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.2 · C
12
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
30
Framing Runs-0.4 · C
43
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
12
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Álvarez’s wOBA sits at 0.351, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.333 — a gap of 0.018, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 244 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burger, Jake TEX · R | 0.78 | In-zone contactPull rate | Player · Projection |
| McMahon, Ryan NYY · L | 0.75 | Walk rateIsolated power | Player · Projection |
| Basallo, Samuel BAL · L | 0.74 | Strikeout rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Walker, Christian HOU · R | 0.71 | Sweet-spot rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-07-16 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.312 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-17 @ CHC0 HR | 1 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 2-3 | BB, RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | BB, HBP, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-04-13 @ LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 13 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-11 vs ATH1 HR | 1 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, RBI, R |