Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	410	46	88	10	27	.237	.286	.384	.670
2025	647	91	146	31	35	.247	.287	.481	.768
2026	725	119	174	45	41	.278	.372	.570	.942
4 Seasons	1801	259	408	86	105	.255	.320	.489	.809

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

90

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

83

Defense4 metrics

98

Speed4 metrics

88

Plate skills10 metrics

32

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.324
xwOBA current pace	0.374
xwOBA rolling p50	0.362
Observed weight	77%

xwOBA

0.342 0.352 0.362 0.373 0.383

wOBA

0.381 0.392 0.404 0.416 0.427

ISO

0.244 0.254 0.264 0.275 0.285

K%

23.0% 24.0% 25.1% 26.1% 27.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.0%

88

Exit velocity89.7

73

Hard-hit%48.3%

90 +26 vs proj

xBA0.376

95

xSLG0.726

96

xwOBA0.374

97 +28 vs proj

BB%11.5%

85 +64 vs proj

Bat speed72.6

86

K%25.8%

34 -20 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs3.9 · CF

95

Arm Strength101.0 · CF

95

Outs Above Avg25.0 · CF

100

Range Runs23.3 · CF

100

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs7.4 · CF

99

Bolts43.0 · CF

90

SB Success Rate86.1% · CF

69

Sprint Speed29.5 · CF

95

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.5% · rebadged research

27

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research

71

Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research

39

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.329 · borderline

6

Resists FastballwOBA 0.381 · validated

7

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

36

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample

31

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample

44

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample

8

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated

53

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Pete Crow-Armstrong's production (66) outpaces the tools grade (62) by 3 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-16.0° Current 36° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

294 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.404

xwOBA (deserved)0.374

Crow-Armstrong’s wOBA sits at 0.404, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.374 — a gap of 0.030, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 733 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Mayo, Coby BAL · R	0.66	Barrel rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Buxton, Byron MIN · R	0.61	Chase rateBat speed	Player · Projection
Contreras, Willson BOS · R	0.60	Avg exit velocityChase rate	Player · Projection
Muncy, Max LAD · L	0.56	Walk rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	11	2026-09-20	On-base pressure held the card together
Fielding	25	2026-09-25	7 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +3.612

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| K, R, CS

Age	24
Height	6' 0"
Weight	184 lb
Debut	2023-09-11

xwOBA Δ	+0.053
wOBA Δ	+0.084

Hitter Projections 20260.321 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs STL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 1 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, R
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| K, R, CS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail