{ "date": "2026-09-23", "generated_at": "2026-09-23T23:44:54.627693", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 144, "odds_matched_count": 74, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 17, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team": "BAL", "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "game_id": 824785, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 455, "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "expected_home_runs": 0.2171, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1953, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 49.16, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824868, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 410, "over_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1918, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1747, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.35, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823894, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 505, "over_odds": 505, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "expected_home_runs": 0.206, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1863, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.46, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "game_id": 824625, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 550, "over_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "expected_home_runs": 0.2099, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1895, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.79, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team": "SD", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "game_id": 823894, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 435, "over_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "expected_home_runs": 0.1852, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1692, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.73, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823894, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 515, "over_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829, "expected_home_runs": 0.202, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.183, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.67, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 824951, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 510, "over_odds": 510, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1768, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 39.21, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team": "ATL", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "game_id": 824868, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 615, "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1702, "expected_home_runs": 0.1866, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1704, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 36.06, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team": "LAA", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "game_id": 824951, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 655, "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1717, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 35.48, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-09-23", "player_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team": "COL", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "game_id": 824301, "lineup_slot": 6, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 790, "over_odds": 790, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1691, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 34.7, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "team": "BAL", "opponent": "TOR", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 49.16 }, { "player_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 410, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1745, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 44.35 }, { "player_name": "Mookie Betts", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 505, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.46 }, { "player_name": "Ian Happ", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "MIA", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 41.79 }, { "player_name": "Manny Machado", "team": "SD", "opponent": "LAD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 435, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 41.73 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 515, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1829, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 40.67 }, { "player_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 510, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 39.21 }, { "player_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team": "ATL", "opponent": "CIN", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1702, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 36.06 }, { "player_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "team": "LAA", "opponent": "ATH", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 35.48 }, { "player_name": "Edouard Julien", "team": "COL", "opponent": "AZ", "lineup_slot": 6, "hr_odds": 790, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 34.7 } ] } }