Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-24 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-24
0 activated plays
Gap rows 174
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-25 Older: 2026-09-23

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Corbin Carroll

Lean

AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 32.7
Odds / Gap +450 / +4.03%
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.047x

Value Rank #2

Carlos Santana

Play

AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 30.0
Odds / Gap +610 / +6.55%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.047x

Value Rank #3

Freddie Freeman

Lean

LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta

Value Score 23.7
Odds / Gap +495 / +3.78%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.970x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+6.70%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+6.56%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+6.51%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+6.55%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+6.45%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+6.45%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.2
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.47%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.47%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.76%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.29%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.39%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+6.30%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.30%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+6.02%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+5.91%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+5.91%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.01%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+5.91%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+5.85%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.7
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.86%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+5.86%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +655 / U --
+5.86%
13.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.46%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.38%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.38%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.70%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.61%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.61%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.14%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+4.14%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+3.15%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-7.43%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+4.03%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+3.86%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+3.69%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.78%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.64%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.50%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+3.63%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+3.48%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.48%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.21%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.09%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.09%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.09%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+3.09%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.01%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.6
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+3.03%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+3.03%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+2.94%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.46%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.96%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.96%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 98.6
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.33%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.20%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.08%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.33%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.20%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.20%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.26%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.13%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.00%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.07%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.79%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.79%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+1.88%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+1.88%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+1.78%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.87%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.99%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-5.22%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+1.83%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+1.74%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+1.74%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+1.59%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+1.50%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+1.50%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+1.55%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.59%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-4.94%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.54%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.35%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.16%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+1.46%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+1.38%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.38%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+1.43%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+1.35%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+1.35%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+1.40%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+1.24%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+1.16%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.6
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.10%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.60%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.60%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.2
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+1.09%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+0.97%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+0.97%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.07%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+0.99%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+0.99%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+0.93%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+0.93%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+0.93%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+0.79%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+0.79%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+0.71%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.73%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.55%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.37%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+0.67%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+0.53%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+0.48%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.61%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-0.33%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.97%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
+0.52%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
+0.30%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.07%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.47%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.32%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.32%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+0.41%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+0.29%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+0.29%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+0.20%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+0.20%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+0.20%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.07%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.18%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-3.12%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.07%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.89%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-3.46%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.04%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.21%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.38%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
-0.38%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
-0.38%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
-0.38%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.38%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-1.23%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-3.04%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.47%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.43%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.85%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.81%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.64%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.55%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
-0.82%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.95%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
-1.08%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs LAD | Tyler Glasnow | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.94%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-1.12%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-1.30%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-0.97%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-1.11%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.26%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-1.02%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-1.16%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.16%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
-1.04%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
-1.23%
8.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
-1.31%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.3
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.44%
16.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.76%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.91%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-1.46%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.65%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-1.77%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-1.55%
15.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-1.74%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-1.87%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.63%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.87%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.87%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.6

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 480
Latest Date 2026-09-26
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 40
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 333 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 75 / 77
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 33.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%