Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-03 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-03
0 activated plays
Gap rows 207
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-07-02

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-02 2026-07-01 2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer

Value Score 40.3
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.51%
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.116x

Value Rank #2

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer

Value Score 36.4
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.69%
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.116x

Value Rank #3

Andrew Benintendi

Play

CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams

Value Score 30.7
Odds / Gap +640 / +6.81%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.094x

Value Rank #4

Francisco Lindor

Lean

NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes

Value Score 30.1
Odds / Gap +420 / +2.73%
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.043x

Value Rank #5

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers

Value Score 28.6
Odds / Gap +540 / +5.51%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.116x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.51%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.51%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.44%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.67%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.67%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.96%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.49%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+7.24%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+7.16%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+7.16%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+6.81%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.81%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.81%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.46%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+6.46%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+5.18%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-9.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+6.07%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+6.00%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+6.00%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+6.04%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.97%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.85%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+5.85%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.77%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.82%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.71%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+5.81%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+5.69%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+5.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.51%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+5.38%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.47%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+5.38%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.38%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.28%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.28%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+5.27%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+5.16%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+5.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+5.18%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+5.10%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.02%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.95%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+4.95%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+4.95%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+4.86%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+4.73%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+4.64%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.83%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.83%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.69%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.36%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.58%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+4.58%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+4.48%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+4.48%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+4.34%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+4.22%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+4.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+4.11%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+4.00%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.95%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.73%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.48%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.55%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.43%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.34%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.25%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.14%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.06%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.89%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.75%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+2.61%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.87%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.59%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.82%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.73%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.74%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.74%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.74%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.73%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+2.54%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+2.35%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.67%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.67%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.49%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.36%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.36%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.46%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.30%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+2.18%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+2.04%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+1.99%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.4
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.05%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.05%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.6
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.04%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.01%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.89%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.91%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.78%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+1.84%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+1.68%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+1.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.72%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.42%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.62%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.29%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.62%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.36%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+1.56%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+1.28%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.28%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.32%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.32%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 103.9
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+1.28%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+0.15%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+1.17%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.18%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-4.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.84%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.34%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+0.70%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+0.60%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+0.60%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.53%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.22%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.22%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.17%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.17%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.16%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.15%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+0.01%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.42%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.01%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.15%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.15%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.07%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.90%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.19%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.37%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.55%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.47%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.68%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.90%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.48%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.62%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.62%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-0.60%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.85%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-2.45%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.63%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.94%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.69%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.69%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.71%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.88%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.06%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-0.89%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.40%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.92%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.09%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.26%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
-1.11%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-1.57%
20.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-1.57%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.40%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.46%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-1.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.41%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.56%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.72%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.44%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-1.76%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 399
Latest Date 2026-07-03
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 207 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 50 / 39
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 40.3
 --
Signals --
2026-07-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 16 / 55 / 23
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-07-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 67 / 84 / 59
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Gavin Sheets | 56.5
 --
Signals --
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%