Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-02 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-02
0 activated plays
Gap rows 180
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-07-01

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-01 2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski

Value Score 53.8
Odds / Gap +655 / +10.23%
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.231x

Value Rank #2

Elly De La Cruz

Strong

CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski

Value Score 51.5
Odds / Gap +540 / +8.85%
1+ HR 24.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.231x

Value Rank #3

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs CLE | Slade Cecconi

Value Score 42.8
Odds / Gap +640 / +8.56%
1+ HR 22.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.120x

Value Rank #4

Spencer Steer

Strong

CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski

Value Score 35.6
Odds / Gap +600 / +7.31%
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.231x

Value Rank #5

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin

Value Score 34.3
Odds / Gap +395 / +2.55%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.120x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +10.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+10.23%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+10.23%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+10.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+8.85%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+8.72%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+8.60%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +8.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+8.56%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+8.56%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+8.56%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.87%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.87%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.16%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+7.31%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+7.31%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+7.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+7.18%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+7.06%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+7.06%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.94%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.94%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+6.87%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+6.75%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+6.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+6.77%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+6.68%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+6.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.75%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+6.67%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.52%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.52%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.43%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+6.13%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+5.97%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.97%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.96%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.90%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.90%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+5.89%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+5.89%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+5.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+5.42%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+5.26%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+5.21%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+5.30%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+5.30%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+5.30%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+5.28%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+5.16%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+5.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+5.21%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+5.10%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+5.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.20%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+5.11%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs KC | Stephen Kolek | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.15%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+5.15%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+5.10%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.94%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.89%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.5
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs KC | Stephen Kolek | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+5.07%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.95%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.95%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+5.04%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+5.04%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+4.96%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.64%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.64%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs KC | Stephen Kolek | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+4.25%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+4.25%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.09%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.09%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+3.70%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+3.70%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+3.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+3.36%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+3.20%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.12%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.2
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+3.19%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+3.07%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.94%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.83%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.83%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.60%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.52%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.59%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.46%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+2.33%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+2.55%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+2.34%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+2.13%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.52%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.38%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+2.24%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+2.40%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+2.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+2.06%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.34%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.20%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs ATL | Hurston Waldrep | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.91%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.91%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+1.84%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.70%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.56%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.83%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.83%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.83%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs KC | Stephen Kolek | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+1.78%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.79%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.65%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.50%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.34%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+1.50%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+1.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.80%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.27%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.14%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.01%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs KC | Stephen Kolek | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.18%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.68%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.2
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.86%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.16%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.80%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.43%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.75%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.61%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.46%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.32%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.56%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.25%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.58%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.33%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.48%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.63%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.38%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-0.58%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.79%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.43%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.56%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
-0.53%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
-1.66%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-2.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.55%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.73%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.91%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.06%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.7
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.58%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.54%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.25%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.93%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.11%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-1.27%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.44%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.61%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.39%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.71%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.71%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.51%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-1.54%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 398
Latest Date 2026-07-02
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 16 / 55 / 24
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-07-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 67 / 84 / 59
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Gavin Sheets | 56.5
 --
Signals --
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%