{ "date": "2026-07-03", "generated_at": "2026-07-03T08:03:21.715549", "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board", "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.", "scoring": { "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)", "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)", "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that", "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1" }, "guardrails": { "main_board": { "requires_tail_layer_active": true, "minimum_base_probability": 0.1, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015, "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160 }, "watchlist": { "minimum_base_probability": 0.075, "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005, "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true } }, "diagnostics": { "projection_count": 126, "odds_matched_count": 69, "tail_active_count": 0, "tail_active_rate": 0.0, "strict_pool_count": 0, "watch_pool_count": 18, "fallback_used": true }, "main_board": [], "extended_watchlist": [ { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 825062, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 375, "over_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "expected_home_runs": 0.2224, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1996, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.82, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824498, "lineup_slot": 3, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 350, "over_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "expected_home_runs": 0.2399, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2134, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team": "SF", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "game_id": 824336, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 385, "over_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2015, "expected_home_runs": 0.225, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2016, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 51.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823933, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 495, "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197, "expected_home_runs": 0.2194, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1972, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 47.5, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team": "TB", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824173, "lineup_slot": 2, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 575, "over_odds": 575, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2062, "expected_home_runs": 0.2309, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2063, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 44.0, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team": "LAD", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "game_id": 823933, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 450, "over_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726, "expected_home_runs": 0.1895, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1727, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 42.78, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team": "AZ", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "game_id": 825062, "lineup_slot": 1, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 500, "over_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "expected_home_runs": 0.2013, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1824, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.69, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "hitter_id": 656775, "team": "TB", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "game_id": 824173, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 605, "over_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913, "expected_home_runs": 0.2123, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1914, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 41.39, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "hitter_id": 664023, "team": "CHC", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "game_id": 824659, "lineup_slot": 4, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "hr_odds": 550, "over_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "expected_home_runs": 0.2099, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1894, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.79, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside" }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team": "CIN", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "game_id": 824498, "lineup_slot": 5, "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "hr_odds": 640, "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1834, "expected_home_runs": 0.2026, "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1836, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "tail_multiplier": 1.0, "framing_component": 1.0, "tail_layer_active_flag": 0, "game_cluster_flag": 0, "high_upside_score": 40.02, "board_tier": "", "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile" } ], "site_preview": { "main_board": [], "watchlist": [ { "player_name": "Ketel Marte", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 51.82 }, { "player_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 3, "hr_odds": 350, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Devers", "team": "SF", "opponent": "COL", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 385, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2015, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 51.0 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.197, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 47.5 }, { "player_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "team": "TB", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 2, "hr_odds": 575, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2062, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 44.0 }, { "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "team": "LAD", "opponent": "SD", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 450, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 42.78 }, { "player_name": "Corbin Carroll", "team": "AZ", "opponent": "MIL", "lineup_slot": 1, "hr_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 41.69 }, { "player_name": "Cedric Mullins", "team": "TB", "opponent": "HOU", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1913, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 41.39 }, { "player_name": "Ian Happ", "team": "CHC", "opponent": "STL", "lineup_slot": 4, "hr_odds": 550, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1893, "tail_uplift": 0.0001, "high_upside_score": 40.79 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "team": "CIN", "opponent": "BAL", "lineup_slot": 5, "hr_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1834, "tail_uplift": 0.0002, "high_upside_score": 40.02 } ] } }