Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-06-17 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-06-17
0 activated plays
Gap rows 225
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-06-16

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12 2026-06-11 2026-06-10

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 55.2
Odds / Gap +695 / +10.62%
1+ HR 23.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.249x

Value Rank #2

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 53.9
Odds / Gap +715 / +10.52%
1+ HR 22.8%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.123x

Value Rank #3

Francisco Lindor

Play

NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 45.2
Odds / Gap +420 / +4.93%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.249x

Value Rank #4

Marcus Semien

Strong

NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 44.4
Odds / Gap +605 / +8.61%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.249x

Value Rank #5

Bobby Witt Jr.

Play

KC vs WSH | Zack Littell

Value Score 44.4
Odds / Gap +470 / +6.21%
1+ HR 23.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.183x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +10.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+10.62%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1065
+10.62%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+10.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +10.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+10.52%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+10.52%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+10.52%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+8.61%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+8.50%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+8.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +8.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+8.50%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+8.50%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+8.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+8.45%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+8.30%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+8.25%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dominic Smith headshot

Dominic Smith
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1420
+7.61%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +880 / U --
+7.51%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1500
+7.45%
9.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -860
+7.60%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+7.50%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+7.50%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+7.39%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+7.23%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Casey Schmitt headshot

Casey Schmitt
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+7.14%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+7.14%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.14%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.4
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+6.98%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+6.92%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+6.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+6.97%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.97%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+6.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+6.96%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.83%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.83%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+6.89%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+6.89%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+6.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.77%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+6.68%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+6.73%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+6.61%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+6.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+6.73%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+6.73%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1135 / U -2080
+6.69%
7.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1110 / U --
+6.53%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1095 / U -2190
+6.42%
8.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+6.62%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+6.62%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.54%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+6.54%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+5.26%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-9.60%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+6.48%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+6.42%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+6.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+6.38%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+6.24%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+6.24%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+6.37%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+6.30%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+6.30%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+6.21%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+6.05%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+6.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 8
Play
Best Gap +6.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -870
+6.06%
13.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +595 / U -820
+5.96%
13.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+5.96%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+6.04%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.97%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.97%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+5.96%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+5.96%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.88%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+5.94%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+5.82%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+5.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+5.86%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+5.55%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+5.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Eli White headshot

Eli White
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+5.76%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+5.63%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+5.63%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.6
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.70%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.62%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.62%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.70%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.60%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.60%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+4.95%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+4.84%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+4.78%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+4.93%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+4.74%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+4.55%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.92%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.92%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.92%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+4.85%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -655
+4.71%
16.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+4.71%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs WSH | Zack Littell | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+4.56%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+4.24%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.54%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+4.41%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+4.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+4.46%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +470 / U -610
+4.31%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+4.31%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
+4.21%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+3.86%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+3.86%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+3.91%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+3.63%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.80%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.67%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.55%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.57%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.57%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.57%
--
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 103.6
Mauricio Dubón headshot

Mauricio Dubón
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1070 / U -1885
+3.54%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1050 / U --
+3.39%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1040 / U -1990
+3.32%
8.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.6
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.50%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.50%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
+3.43%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
+3.23%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
+3.02%
19.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.15%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.81%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+3.11%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+2.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+2.83%
16.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+3.09%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+3.09%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+3.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.09%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.94%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.01%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.93%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.93%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+2.93%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
+1.84%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-6.31%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.70%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.70%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.70%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.4
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.59%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.46%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.46%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.13%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.94%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.75%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.92%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.76%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+1.60%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+1.91%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+1.75%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+1.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.73%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.40%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs SF | Adrian Houser | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
+1.72%
20.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
+1.26%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+1.03%
21.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.37%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.05%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.91%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.91%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.8
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -425
+0.76%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
+0.49%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +325 / U -395
+0.22%
22.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.73%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.40%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+0.70%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+0.60%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+0.60%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+0.62%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+0.48%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.34%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.21%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.55%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-3.73%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+0.14%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.07%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.29%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+0.12%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
-0.21%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.21%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+0.04%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.17%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.38%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs ATH | Aaron Civale | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.29%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-0.51%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.74%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CHC | Javier Assad | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.45%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.77%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.77%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-0.49%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.35%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.95%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.59%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.73%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.87%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-1.06%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.26%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.44%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.60%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-1.76%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.61%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-1.65%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.81%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 394
Latest Date 2026-06-17
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-11
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 180 matched
0 unmatched
 30 / 38 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 51.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-10
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 21 / 37 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 47.9
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%