{
  "date": "2026-06-17",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-16T23:34:45.538478",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 123,
    "odds_matched_count": 75,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 30,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
      "hitter_id": 670541,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824178,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 385,
      "over_odds": 385,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2327,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2078,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor",
      "hitter_id": 596019,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824503,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 420,
      "over_odds": 420,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2766,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2417,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers",
      "hitter_id": 646240,
      "team": "SF",
      "team_abbr": "SF",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824912,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.267,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2344,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "SF",
      "opponent_abbr": "SF",
      "game_id": 824912,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2584,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2278,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 823450,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2155,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2427,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2156,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe",
      "hitter_id": 664040,
      "team": "PIT",
      "team_abbr": "PIT",
      "opponent": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "game_id": 824992,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2261,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2025,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Walker",
      "hitter_id": 572233,
      "team": "HOU",
      "team_abbr": "HOU",
      "opponent": "DET",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "game_id": 824178,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.22,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1976,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.85,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 677951,
      "team": "KC",
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
      "game_id": 822721,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2375,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2712,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2376,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824503,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 335,
      "over_odds": 335,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2375,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2712,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2376,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.24,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team": "MIL",
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 823774,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2254,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.202,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.2,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 385,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2076,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Francisco Lindor",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 420,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2416,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Rafael Devers",
        "team": "SF",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "SF",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2277,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2155,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brandon Lowe",
        "team": "PIT",
        "opponent": "ATH",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2024,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Walker",
        "team": "HOU",
        "opponent": "DET",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1975,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.85
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.",
        "team": "KC",
        "opponent": "WSH",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2375,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 335,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2375,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.24
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Christian Yelich",
        "team": "MIL",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2018,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 49.2
      }
    ]
  }
}