Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 173 lb |
| Debut | 2019-07-07 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Mauricio Dubón
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 173 lb · Age 31
Club Atlanta Braves
Position LF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 428 | 45 | 108 | 4 | 3 | .269 | .296 | .361 | .657 |
| 2025 | 398 | 43 | 89 | 7 | 3 | .241 | .289 | .355 | .644 |
| 2026 | 372 | 42 | 91 | 10 | 3 | .265 | .319 | .420 | .739 |
| 8 Seasons | 2430 | 290 | 584 | 49 | 25 | .258 | .298 | .381 | .679 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.295
0.307
0.319
0.329
wOBA
0.328
0.343
0.359
0.375
0.390
ISO
0.121
0.133
0.146
0.159
0.171
K%
11.5%
12.4%
13.6%
14.7%
15.6%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
Exit velocity86.1
28
Hard-hit%32.0%
22
xBA0.320
48
xSLG0.467
34
xwOBA0.316
60
+37 vs proj
BB%6.4%
23
Bat speed67.0
19
K%14.1%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.2 · LF
95
Arm Strength97.2 · LF
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs5.6 · LF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
47
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
37
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
209 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.079 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Dubón’s wOBA sits at 0.359, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.043, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 391 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vierling, Matt DET · R | 0.72 | Barrel ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L | 0.67 | Bat speedSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Hoerner, Nico CHC · R | 0.65 | Bat speedAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R | 0.61 | Barrel rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-04-02 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.280 xwOBA | 8 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | HBP |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR | 1 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-13 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 BB |