Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 32 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 173 lb |
| Debut | 2019-07-07 |
Player profile / Atlanta Braves
Mauricio Dubón
LF · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 173 lb · Age 32
Club Atlanta Braves
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 428 | 45 | 108 | 4 | 3 | .269 | .296 | .361 | .657 |
| 2025 | 398 | 43 | 89 | 7 | 3 | .241 | .289 | .355 | .644 |
| 2026 | 615 | 65 | 156 | 11 | 10 | .275 | .320 | .393 | .713 |
| 8 Seasons | 2673 | 313 | 649 | 50 | 32 | .261 | .300 | .378 | .678 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
30
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.300 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.289
0.300
0.310
0.319
wOBA
0.315
0.327
0.340
0.352
0.364
ISO
0.103
0.112
0.122
0.132
0.141
K%
10.4%
11.2%
12.0%
12.9%
13.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
23
Exit velocity86.2
32
Hard-hit%30.0%
16
xBA0.307
36
xSLG0.428
23
xwOBA0.303
51
+26 vs proj
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed67.2
23
K%11.8%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · LF
83
Arm Strength97.2 · LF
76
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs3.1 · LF
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · LF
25
SB Success Rate71.4% · LF
28
Sprint Speed26.8 · LF
33
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.2% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.286 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.023 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.059 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Dubón’s wOBA sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.037, -1.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 634 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoerner, Nico CHC · R | 0.77 | Pull rateAvg exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| McNeil, Jeff ATH · L | 0.71 | Sweet-spot rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
| Lee, Jung Hoo SF · L | 0.63 | Swing lengthWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Sanoja, Javier MIA · R | 0.61 | Walk rateMax exit velocity | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-08-20 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.280 xwOBA | 8 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 |
| 2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 8 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | R |
| 2026-04-17 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | HBP |
| 2026-04-15 vs MIA0 HR | 1 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | RBI |
| 2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | 2 K, R |