Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-14 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-14
0 activated plays
Gap rows 225
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-15 Older: 2026-09-13

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-27 2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jackson Merrill

Play

SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 34.6
Odds / Gap +525 / +6.00%
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #2

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Lean

SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 33.2
Odds / Gap +460 / +4.28%
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #3

Manny Machado

Lean

SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 29.4
Odds / Gap +425 / +2.73%
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #4

Will Smith

Play

LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 27.7
Odds / Gap +505 / +4.54%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Neutral | HR 0.984x

Value Rank #5

Mookie Betts

Lean

LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 26.1
Odds / Gap +465 / +3.38%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Confirmed | Confirmed Neutral | HR 0.984x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.51%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +220 / U -260
+8.51%
30.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -285
+6.70%
29.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +225 / U --
-11.50%
30.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ty France headshot

Ty France
SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +925 / U -1500
+7.06%
9.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1590
+6.92%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +910 / U --
+6.92%
9.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.2
Xander Bogaerts headshot

Xander Bogaerts
SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +850 / U -1320
+6.77%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +840 / U --
+6.66%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +835 / U -1395
+6.60%
10.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lars Nootbaar headshot

Lars Nootbaar
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1005
+6.05%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +695 / U -1070
+5.97%
12.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.97%
12.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+6.00%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+5.87%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+5.87%
16.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -960
+5.52%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1020
+5.52%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.52%
13.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tommy Edman headshot

Tommy Edman
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -785
+5.05%
14.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.94%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -735
+4.82%
15.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brooks Lee headshot

Brooks Lee
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+5.01%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+5.01%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+4.92%
13.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake McCarthy headshot

Jake McCarthy
COL vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1020 / U -1745
+4.84%
8.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1000 / U --
+4.68%
9.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +995 / U -1845
+4.64%
8.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -885
+4.68%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+4.68%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+4.59%
13.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Connor Norby headshot

Connor Norby
COL vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.55%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -735
+4.43%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.43%
15.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Will Smith headshot

Will Smith
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
+4.54%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+4.40%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+4.26%
16.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Teel headshot

Kyle Teel
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -870
+4.48%
13.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +595 / U -820
+4.38%
13.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.38%
14.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+4.37%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +340 / U -430
+3.24%
21.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-7.63%
23.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Anthony Volpe headshot

Anthony Volpe
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 0.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.30%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.80%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-7.80%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -620
+4.28%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+4.12%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -580
+3.96%
17.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nolan Arenado headshot

Nolan Arenado
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +660 / U -935
+4.03%
12.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +660 / U -995
+4.03%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +660 / U --
+4.03%
13.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.01%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.89%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.89%
14.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+3.96%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -855
+3.86%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.86%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+3.91%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+3.81%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.81%
14.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1480
+3.82%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.67%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1565
+3.62%
9.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -860
+3.69%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+3.59%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.59%
14.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gabriel Moreno headshot

Gabriel Moreno
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +815 / U -1250
+3.56%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +805 / U -1320
+3.44%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +805 / U --
+3.44%
11.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Caratini headshot

Victor Caratini
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +680 / U -970
+3.54%
12.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1030
+3.54%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+3.46%
12.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +840 / U -1300
+3.43%
10.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +830 / U --
+3.32%
10.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +825 / U -1375
+3.26%
10.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -635
+3.38%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -595
+3.22%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+3.22%
17.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brett Baty headshot

Brett Baty
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 8
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+3.15%
13.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +615 / U -860
+3.05%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.05%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pavin Smith headshot

Pavin Smith
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 8
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.06%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+2.96%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.96%
14.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Jeffers headshot

Ryan Jeffers
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -840
+2.92%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -790
+2.82%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.82%
14.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+2.82%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+2.71%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+2.71%
15.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+2.73%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+2.36%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
+2.17%
18.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.63%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -745
+2.51%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.51%
15.3%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.41%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+2.28%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.28%
15.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Otto Lopez headshot

Otto Lopez
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1410
+2.39%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+2.28%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1490
+2.23%
9.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tim Tawa headshot

Tim Tawa
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +660 / U -935
+2.38%
12.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +660 / U -995
+2.38%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +660 / U --
+2.38%
13.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+2.36%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.24%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.24%
15.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+2.17%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+2.04%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+2.04%
11.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+2.04%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+2.04%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+2.04%
14.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Harris II headshot

Michael Harris II
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.02%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+1.92%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+1.92%
14.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Vargas headshot

Miguel Vargas
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+1.97%
12.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +665 / U -950
+1.89%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+1.89%
13.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.6
Dillon Dingler headshot

Dillon Dingler
DET vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +680 / U -975
+1.87%
12.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1035
+1.87%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +675 / U --
+1.79%
12.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap +1.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+1.69%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+1.69%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+1.69%
14.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.39%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.23%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.06%
17.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+1.32%
13.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +595 / U -820
+1.22%
13.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+1.22%
14.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mauricio Dubón headshot

Mauricio Dubón
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1070 / U -1885
+1.26%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1050 / U --
+1.11%
8.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1040 / U -1990
+1.04%
8.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.5
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -440
+1.14%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +365 / U -470
+0.16%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-4.36%
21.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mickey Moniak headshot

Mickey Moniak
COL vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.07%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.92%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.76%
17.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.05%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.90%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.75%
16.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Javier Sanoja headshot

Javier Sanoja
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1025 / U -1755
+1.03%
8.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1005 / U --
+0.87%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +995 / U -1850
+0.79%
8.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Austin Wells headshot

Austin Wells
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap +1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+1.01%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+0.89%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+0.89%
15.6%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+0.95%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +325 / U -410
-0.06%
22.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-4.14%
23.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
+0.82%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+0.47%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.47%
18.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.66%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
+0.46%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+0.26%
19.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Stowers headshot

Kyle Stowers
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.25%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.06%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.13%
19.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+0.23%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +375 / U -485
-0.86%
20.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-3.56%
21.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -565
+0.22%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.04%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.15%
18.8%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs AZ | Corbin Burnes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.22%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.28%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.72%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -790
+0.19%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
-0.04%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
-0.04%
15.4%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.04%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.18%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.32%
16.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kody Clemens headshot

Kody Clemens
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.08%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.25%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-0.42%
17.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Sean Murphy headshot

Sean Murphy
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 8
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
-0.11%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
-0.25%
16.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
-0.39%
16.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -495
-0.19%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -530
-1.13%
19.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.20%
20.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Walker headshot

Jordan Walker
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +740 / U -1095
-0.38%
11.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +740 / U -1160
-0.38%
11.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +735 / U --
-0.46%
12.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Mark Vientos headshot

Mark Vientos
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -585
-0.49%
17.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.84%
18.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.84%
18.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.65%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.48%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.71%
19.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Alvarez headshot

Francisco Alvarez
NYM vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 9
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -700
-0.66%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.80%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-0.94%
16.2%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.68%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +365 / U -470
-1.83%
20.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.61%
22.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -600
-0.78%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
-1.12%
17.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-1.12%
18.5%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.84%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.84%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.84%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.0
Luisangel Acuña headshot

Luisangel Acuña
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.87%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1135 / U --
-0.97%
8.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1120 / U -2275
-1.07%
7.9%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.18%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.38%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.59%
19.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +690 / U -995
-1.21%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
-1.21%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
-1.21%
12.7%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.1
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -460
-1.24%
20.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.73%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.95%
21.1%
Confirmed | Confirmed Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-1.43%
16.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +500 / U -685
-1.82%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-2.10%
17.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Thomas Saggese headshot

Thomas Saggese
STL vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.66%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.84%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.84%
8.0%
Confirmed | Confirmed Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 481
Latest Date 2026-09-27
Latest Signals 0
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 14 / 73
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 183 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 6 / 49
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
51 unmatched
 1 / 21 / 64
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 26 / 20
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Corbin Carroll | 32.7
 --
Signals --
2026-09-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 222 matched
0 unmatched
 1 / 17 / 30
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
42 unmatched
 1 / 30 / 31
Strong / Play / Lean
 1
Carlos Santana | 27.2
 --
Signals --
2026-09-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 33 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 0 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 0
-- | --
 --
Signals --
2026-09-20
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 258 matched
0 unmatched
 14 / 41 / 66
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jeremy Peña | 37.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%