{ "date": "2026-09-14", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-14T23:49:40.406574", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-14", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 84 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 225, "matched_count": 225, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 225, "matched_rows": 225, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 85, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 2, "play_count": 29, "lean_count": 60, "no_play_count": 134, "average_edge_over": 0.0114, "average_edge_under": -0.0491, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 225, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": -260, "expected_home_runs": 0.214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1927, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112892, "model_over_probability": 0.1927, "model_under_probability": 0.8073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.302, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.698, "edge_over": -0.1198, "edge_under": 0.0851, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0851, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.097, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.934, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1927, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.177, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2243, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2232, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1762, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1813, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1626, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1312, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1355, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1404, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0882, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1256, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1499, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1762, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.302, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12984323152438743, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1813, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8701567684756126, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.17215676847561256, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.214, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.214, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.17033050516726686, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2243, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2243, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7757000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0882, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.09445676847561257, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1813, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1312, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1404, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ty France", "hitter_id": 664034, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 925, "under_odds": -1500, "expected_home_runs": 0.1842, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1682, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.096008, "model_over_probability": 0.1682, "model_under_probability": 0.8318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0976, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9375, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9057, "edge_over": 0.0706, "edge_under": -0.1057, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "QUESTIONABLE", "availability_factor": 0.65, "active_roster_flag": false, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.45, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.14, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.058, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.46, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1682, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0916, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.127, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1474, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1563, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1645, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.145, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0587, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0706, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0508, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0446, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0669, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0474, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0243, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1474, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0943, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.46, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.46, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11395639697495162, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1563, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8860436030250484, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.019656396974951626, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1842, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1842, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1201617441973343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8798382558026657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.025861744197334308, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0916, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0916, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9084, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0285617441973343, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1563, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0587, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0446, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ty France", "hitter_id": 664034, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 910, "under_odds": -1590, "expected_home_runs": 0.1842, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1682, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.096008, "model_over_probability": 0.1682, "model_under_probability": 0.8318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9408, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0952, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9048, "edge_over": 0.0692, "edge_under": -0.109, "recommended_side": 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0809, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0809, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9191, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0441, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0392617441973343, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1649, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0399, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", 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0.0597, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "OUT", "availability_factor": 0.4, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.98, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 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"hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2503, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2214, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.133462, "model_over_probability": 0.2214, "model_under_probability": 0.7786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0412, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0412, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", 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"projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1021, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1355, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1272, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1434, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1208, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1154, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0396, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0246, 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not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1732, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14411598612646329, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2045, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8558840138735367, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.029084013873536707, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2158, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04153050516726686, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1277, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1277, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8723, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0525, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016415986126463278, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2045, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0243, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0081, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1561, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.087901, "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": 0.0132, "edge_under": -0.0535, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0132, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1561, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1026, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0826, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0891, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0973, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.002, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0132, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0403, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0521, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0521, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0456, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1374, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10389451065359763, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1409, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8961054893464023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.033505489346402365, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1697, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.09732072562223142, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9026792743777686, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04007927437776858, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0826, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0826, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9174, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0603, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021294510653597623, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1409, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.002, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0521, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Mauricio Dub\u00f3n", "hitter_id": 643289, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1070, "under_odds": -1885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0981, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.051248, "model_over_probability": 0.0981, "model_under_probability": 0.9019, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0855, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0826, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9174, "edge_over": 0.0126, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0126, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.84, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0981, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.093, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0834, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1202, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0923, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0928, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0963, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1011, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0073, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0126, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0053, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.02, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0923, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0826, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.07100594526644473, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0928, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9289940547335552, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.011594054733555278, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.0021, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026314780355786688, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0928, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0073, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0053, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113876, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, 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0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -820, "expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1561, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.087901, "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8913, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.861, "edge_over": 0.0122, "edge_under": -0.0474, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0122, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1561, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1026, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0826, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0891, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0973, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0413, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0531, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0613, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0548, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0466, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": 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"edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.139, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10389451065359763, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1409, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8961054893464023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03510548934640238, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1697, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.09732072562223142, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9026792743777686, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.041679274377768596, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0826, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0826, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9174, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0613, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021294510653597623, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1409, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.003, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0531, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1561, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.087901, "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0122, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0122, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1561, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1026, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0826, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1039, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0891, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0973, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.003, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0413, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0531, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0613, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0548, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0466, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1039, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 152, "edge_direction_rank": null, 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"valinor_hr_prob": 0.1408, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8592, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0612, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.010686265445252141, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2016, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0004, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0299, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "hitter_id": 669065, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Corbin Burnes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.219, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.115708, "model_over_probability": 0.1967, "model_under_probability": 0.8033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8133, "edge_over": 0.0025, "edge_under": -0.0429, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0025, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", 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true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1795, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1511, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.18, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1927, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.164, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1344, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1601, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1625, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1887, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1712, 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"fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0373, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1344, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1344, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8656, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0579, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009236726497915126, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1887, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1802, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1649, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.093782, "model_over_probability": 0.1649, "model_under_probability": 0.8351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1589, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8411, "edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": -0.0399, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1649, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1411, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0931, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1283, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1398, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1323, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1306, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1215, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.033, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0242, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0317, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0722, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0438, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1398, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 222, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1589, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09818025054014733, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1323, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9018197494598527, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06071974945985269, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1802, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1802, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11665546217130586, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8833445378286942, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.042244537828694154, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0931, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0931, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9069, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0722, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023555462171305858, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1323, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.033, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0317, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1665, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1534, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086113, "model_over_probability": 0.1534, "model_under_probability": 0.8466, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1485, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8515, "edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": -0.0351, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.85, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1534, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.173, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1333, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1593, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.174, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1784, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0517, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0192, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0253, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0517, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0253, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0246, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 223, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1485, 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null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, 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"fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0931, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0931, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9069, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0736, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023555462171305858, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1323, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.1863, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.17, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.097227, "model_over_probability": 0.17, "model_under_probability": 0.83, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1954, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8046, "edge_over": -0.032, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.096, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, 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"calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0665, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "hitter_id": 665019, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.104751, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0025, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.126, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.126, "valinor_prob_under": 0.874, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0575, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029012198270383288, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2227, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1957, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { 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8, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.38, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, 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null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0629, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0629, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9371, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1024, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04546406213776098, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1477, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Corbin Burnes", "sportsbook": 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null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1038, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04546406213776098, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1477, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.019, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0759, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens", "hitter_id": 665019, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.104751, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": -0.0042, "edge_under": -0.0306, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0042, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.018, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.934, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.88, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1913, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.126, 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weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 183, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.25, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.25, "palantir_prob_over": 0.04807902413999554, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0612, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9519209758600045, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0188, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", 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0.0078, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08735854810560233, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0612, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1979, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103718, "model_over_probability": 0.1795, "model_under_probability": 0.8205, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2025, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7975, "edge_over": -0.031, "edge_under": -0.0086, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0086, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.0, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1795, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1511, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.131, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1576, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", 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"fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 178, 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0.1979, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1201617441973343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8798382558026657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08233825580266571, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.131, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.131, "valinor_prob_under": 0.869, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0795, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.010838255802665703, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1672, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0433, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0683, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Luisangel Acu\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 682668, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.074, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0713, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.035629, "model_over_probability": 0.0713, "model_under_probability": 0.9287, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.968, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.942, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.19, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0713, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1224, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0845, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1211, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1211, 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"recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0166, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0332, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2085, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.109744, "model_over_probability": 0.1882, "model_under_probability": 0.8118, 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"neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.934, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1882, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1819, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1585, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1776, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.181, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2347, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2057, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0084, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0159, 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"fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1585, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1585, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8415, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0456, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02426433065164668, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1957, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0084, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.025, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Thomas Saggese", "hitter_id": 695336, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0636, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0616, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.030205, "model_over_probability": 0.0616, "model_under_probability": 0.9384, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0166, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.85, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 3.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0616, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0471, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1062, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1387, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.05, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0693, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0701, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0877, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0107, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0286, 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"LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0773, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"fangorn_confidence": "Strong Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Strong Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1062, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1062, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8938, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0262, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.052136605914057506, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0693, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0107, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0471, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0329, "captured_at": "2026-09-15T03:49:32.538316+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-14T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2119, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.191, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.111701, "model_over_probability": 0.191, "model_under_probability": 0.809, 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