{
  "date": "2026-09-14",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-14T23:49:54.476851",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 84,
    "odds_matched_count": 75,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 16,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 825034,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 365,
      "over_odds": 365,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2153,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1938,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.11,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Ben Rice",
      "hitter_name": "Ben Rice",
      "hitter_id": 700250,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "MIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "game_id": 823656,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 400,
      "over_odds": 400,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2085,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1884,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.46,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "BAL",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "game_id": 823575,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 325,
      "over_odds": 325,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.219,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1968,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.07,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Will Smith",
      "hitter_name": "Will Smith",
      "hitter_id": 669257,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "CIN",
      "opponent_abbr": "CIN",
      "game_id": 824465,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 505,
      "over_odds": 505,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2107,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2366,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2108,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Kody Clemens",
      "hitter_name": "Kody Clemens",
      "hitter_id": 665019,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823656,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1997,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1812,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.3,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_name": "Matt Olson",
      "hitter_id": 621566,
      "team": "ATL",
      "team_abbr": "ATL",
      "opponent": "CHC",
      "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
      "game_id": 824629,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 375,
      "over_odds": 375,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1979,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1796,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.85,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll",
      "hitter_id": 682998,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 825034,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2001,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1815,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 42.62,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
      "hitter_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
      "hitter_id": 663457,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "game_id": 825034,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 700,
      "over_odds": 700,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2052,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1856,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 39.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
      "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
      "hitter_id": 680777,
      "team": "MIN",
      "team_abbr": "MIN",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 823656,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 580,
      "over_odds": 580,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.194,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1765,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.89,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-14",
      "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery",
      "hitter_id": 695657,
      "team": "CWS",
      "team_abbr": "CWS",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824386,
      "lineup_slot": 7,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 340,
      "over_odds": 340,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1563,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.17,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1564,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.71,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 365,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1937,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.11
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ben Rice",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "MIN",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 400,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1882,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.46
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "BAL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 325,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1967,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.07
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Will Smith",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "CIN",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 505,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2107,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Kody Clemens",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 46.3
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Matt Olson",
        "team": "ATL",
        "opponent": "CHC",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 375,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.85
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Corbin Carroll",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 42.62
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Lars Nootbaar",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "MIA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 700,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 39.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ryan Jeffers",
        "team": "MIN",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 580,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1763,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 37.89
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
        "team": "CWS",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 7,
        "hr_odds": 340,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1563,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 36.71
      }
    ]
  }
}