Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	52	5	10	1	0	.204	.250	.306	.556
2025	295	25	71	2	3	.258	.299	.342	.641
2026	173	25	36	4	4	.232	.295	.355	.650
3 Seasons	520	55	117	7	7	.244	.293	.342	.635

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

77

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

65

Defense4 metrics

66

Speed2 metrics

59

Plate skills10 metrics

61

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.284
xwOBA current pace	0.313
xwOBA rolling p50	0.297
Observed weight	46%

xwOBA

0.269 0.282 0.297 0.312 0.325

wOBA

0.271 0.292 0.315 0.338 0.359

ISO

0.106 0.122 0.139 0.156 0.171

K%

23.1% 24.8% 26.6% 28.4% 30.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.5%

76 +19 vs proj

Exit velocity91.2

89

Hard-hit%45.8%

83 +25 vs proj

xBA0.344

78

xSLG0.582

76

xwOBA0.313

61

BB%7.1%

33

Bat speed70.6

65

K%27.2%

27 -16 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.4 · SS

86

Arm Strength87.1 · SS

49

Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS

73

Range Runs0.3 · SS

58

Baserunning · percentile strip

SB Success Rate80.0% · SS

48

Sprint Speed28.2 · SS

71

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7% · rebadged research

35

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3% · rebadged research

85

Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research

51

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline

77

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample

79

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample

60

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample

45

Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated

62

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated

62

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102

56

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Thomas Saggese's tools (82) outpace production (63) by 19 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+9.0° Current 7° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

99 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.315

xwOBA (deserved)0.313

Saggese’s wOBA sits at 0.315, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.313 — a gap of 0.002, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 184 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-09-20	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	12	2026-09-25	1 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.458

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-12 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Age	24
Height	5' 10"
Weight	185 lb
Debut	2024-09-10

xwOBA Δ	+0.012
wOBA Δ	+0.014

Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA \| 6 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| K
2026-04-20 @ MIA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K
2026-04-12 vs BOS0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Thomas Saggese

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail