Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	635	70	157	16	2	.272	.325	.394	.719
2025	436	48	95	12	3	.237	.289	.377	.666
2026	599	80	136	30	4	.255	.331	.475	.806
14 Seasons	8113	1072	2057	383	35	.280	.338	.505	.843

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

34

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

41

Defense3 metrics

63

Speed2 metrics

8

Plate skills10 metrics

28

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.300
xwOBA current pace	0.299
xwOBA rolling p50	0.299
Observed weight	73%

xwOBA

0.279 0.289 0.299 0.310 0.320

wOBA

0.341 0.352 0.366 0.379 0.391

ISO

0.179 0.190 0.202 0.214 0.225

K%

16.5% 17.3% 18.3% 19.2% 20.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.9%

52 +22 vs proj

Exit velocity85.1

21

Hard-hit%31.2%

21

xBA0.297

26

xSLG0.473

41

xwOBA0.299

46

BB%8.7%

53 +22 vs proj

Bat speed69.2

43

K%19.7%

69 -19 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength84.8 · 3B

28

Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B

85

Range Runs2.1 · 3B

75

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-2.9 · 3B

10

Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B

6

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9% · rebadged research

37

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8% · rebadged research

19

Correct Decisions62.2% · rebadged research

17

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline

40

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95

23

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample

37

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample

19

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample

79

Resists FastballwOBA 0.398 · validated

2

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated

8

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nolan Arenado's tools (78) outpace production (74) by 5 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

281 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.6σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.366

xwOBA (deserved)0.299

Arenado’s wOBA sits at 0.366, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.299 — a gap of 0.066, -2.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 610 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Heim, Jonah ATH · L	0.58	Sprint speedHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Adames, Willy SF · R	0.51	Chase ratePull rate	Player · Projection
Bellinger, Cody NYY · L	0.50	Ground-ball rateBarrel rate	Player · Projection
Varsho, Daulton TOR · L	0.48	Sweet-spot rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	7	2026-09-22	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	23	2026-09-26	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.732

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.295 xwOBA \| 15 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL2 HR \| 4 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI
2026-04-17 vs TOR1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, RBI
2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR \| 5 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, K, 5 RBI

Age	35
Height	6' 2"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2013-04-28

xwOBA Δ	+0.004
wOBA Δ	+0.070

Hitter Projections 20260.295 xwOBA \| 15 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL2 HR \| 4 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI
2026-04-17 vs TOR1 HR \| 2 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2 RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| K, RBI
2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR \| 5 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, K, 5 RBI

Nolan Arenado

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail