Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 35 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2013-04-28 |
Player profile / Arizona Diamondbacks
Nolan Arenado
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 215 lb · Age 35
Club Arizona Diamondbacks
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 635 | 70 | 157 | 16 | 2 | .272 | .325 | .394 | .719 |
| 2025 | 436 | 48 | 95 | 12 | 3 | .237 | .289 | .377 | .666 |
| 2026 | 253 | 30 | 54 | 8 | 2 | .243 | .324 | .405 | .729 |
| 14 Seasons | 7767 | 1022 | 1975 | 361 | 33 | .281 | .338 | .504 | .842 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.300 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.308 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.290
0.304
0.319
0.331
wOBA
0.320
0.338
0.358
0.378
0.396
ISO
0.130
0.145
0.162
0.180
0.195
K%
15.0%
16.1%
17.4%
18.6%
19.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
44
+17 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
19
Hard-hit%31.3%
18
xBA0.318
44
xSLG0.484
42
xwOBA0.308
49
BB%8.7%
50
+23 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
44
K%19.8%
64
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.6 · 3B
31
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
86
Range Runs2.2 · 3B
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed25.3 · 3B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
159 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Arenado’s wOBA sits at 0.358, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.308 — a gap of 0.050, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 263 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2026-04-22 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.295 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-17 vs TOR1 HR | 2 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, R |
| 2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |
| 2026-04-13 @ BAL2 HR | 5 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 HR, K, 5 RBI |
| 2026-04-12 @ PHI0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | RBI, R |