Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	495	66	126	8	25	.285	.349	.400	.749
2025	222	18	42	4	6	.204	.247	.345	.592
2026	307	39	84	10	15	.301	.347	.516	.863
6 Seasons	1760	224	423	34	98	.267	.328	.405	.733

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

35

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

36

Defense4 metrics

24

Speed4 metrics

75

Plate skills10 metrics

47

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.324
xwOBA current pace	0.314
xwOBA rolling p50	0.318
Observed weight	60%

xwOBA

0.293 0.305 0.318 0.331 0.343

wOBA

0.376 0.392 0.410 0.429 0.445

ISO

0.163 0.178 0.195 0.212 0.227

K%

15.4% 16.7% 18.2% 19.6% 21.0%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.2%

38 +15 vs proj

Exit velocity82.3

5

Hard-hit%26.7%

10

xBA0.324

53

xSLG0.499

46

xwOBA0.314

58

BB%5.4%

17

Bat speed67.4

23

K%17.2%

78

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-2.3 · CF

4

Arm Strength83.4 · CF

1

Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF

46

Range Runs-0.3 · CF

43

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.0 · CF

69

Bolts53.0 · CF

97

SB Success Rate75.0% · CF

34

Sprint Speed29.9 · CF

99

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research

25

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research

87

Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research

64

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · borderline

95

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample

25

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample

74

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample

9

Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated

25

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated

18

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100

46

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Mccarthy's tools (83) outpace production (84) by -1 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

165 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-3.3σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.410

xwOBA (deserved)0.314

Mccarthy’s wOBA sits at 0.410, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.314 — a gap of 0.096, -3.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 331 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Church, Nathan STL · L	0.68	Walk rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection
Peters, Tristan CWS · L	0.67	In-zone contactMax exit velocity	Player · Projection
Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R	0.58	Ground-ball rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Young, Jacob WSH · R	0.56	Barrel rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	1	2026-07-03	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 3B, 2 R, SB
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| 3B, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-11 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB, CS

Age	28
Height	6' 0"
Weight	213 lb
Debut	2021-08-27

xwOBA Δ	+0.000
wOBA Δ	+0.096

Hitter Projections 20260.314 xwOBA \| 7 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| 3B, 2 R, SB
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| 3B, K, 2 RBI
2026-04-11 @ SD0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB, CS

Jake Mccarthy

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail